Around 12 have passed since the country witnessed its most recent impeachment conviction — then-Chief Justice Renato Corona on 29 May 2012. Corona's high-profile ouster likewise came nearly 12 years on from the Philippines' first major impeachment proceedings: those of former president Joseph "Erap" Estrada.

Now, on 5 February 2025, Vice President Sara Duterte faces a similar fate as the House of Representatives has sent Articles of Impeachment to the Senate, setting the stage for another high-profile trial.

These impeachments — Joseph Estrada on 20 January 2001, Corona in 2012, and now Duterte — underscore the volatile nature of Philippine politics, driven by constantly shifting alliances in the House and ever-changing public sentiment. Is the 12-year gap between ousters coincidence, or does it hint at a cyclical power struggle playing out between ruling parties looking to consolidate power?

Duterte in 2025: Fraying alliances

On Wednesday, Philippine lawmakers voted to transmit Articles of Impeachment against Vice President Sara Duterte to the Senate, just a day before the congressional session was set to end. The measure secured at least 215 signatures — well above the constitutionally mandated one-third of the House membership.

Although specifics of the charges were not detailed on the House floor, the vote follows a trio of complaints filed last month accusing Duterte of “brazen misuse” of millions of dollars in public funds and even plotting the assassination of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.

“Having been filed by more than one-third of the membership of the House of Representatives, or a total of 215 members ... the motion is approved,” House Speaker Martin Romualdez told fellow lawmakers. Duterte’s political future now hinges on the Senate, where two-thirds of the 24 senators must vote to convict.

Fragile ‘UniTeam’

Duterte’s falling out with President Marcos marks a stark deterioration of their once-powerful “UniTeam” tandem, which had propelled both into office. The House Speakership, meanwhile, is held by Romualdez — a Lakas-CMD stalwart, close ally, and cousin to Marcos — further fueling speculation about internal rifts within the administration.

The Pulse Asia survey from 21 December reflects this political turbulence. The Vice President currently has a 50% approval rating, with 28% disapproval, 49% trust, and 27% no trust. In contrast, President Marcos posts stronger numbers: 48% approval, 25% disapproval, 47% trust, and 27% no trust.

Meanwhile, Romualdez suffers from low approval and trust, with just 25% of respondents saying they approve of him, while 32% disapprove. His trust/no trust ratings stood at 21%/35% in December, reflecting accusations that he was among those that "intimidating" members of the vice present's staff.

Before impeachment complaints moved forward, it was thought that the relationship between Duterte and the First Family, including Romualdez, had reached its lowest point when the VP had seemingly threatened to assassinate President Marcos, his wife, and the house speaker, should anything happen to her.