“If the US under Trump gets too hawkish, a foe could respond in kind or an ally, say the Philippines, Taiwan, or Israel, could overstep, prompting retaliation from China or Iran, and dragging America into conflict.
In 2025, the International Crisis Group (ICG) sees Donald Trump’s return to the White House making an already volatile world even more unpredictable. The ICG sees Trump’s re-ascension to US presidential power in these unsettled times as shaking things up further. But how does a disrupter impact an already disrupted world?
In its 2025 forecast overview, the independent Brussels-based non-profit multinational organization involved in geopolitical research, analyses, and high-level peace advocacy work on five continents takes note of the chain reaction set off by Hamas’ 7 October 2023 attack on Israel:
Gaza buried under rubble by a vengeful Israel; a degrading of Iran’s region-wide network of non-state proxies with Tehran’s own defenses demolished; setting the stage for Islamist rebels to topple the Assads’ half-century dictatorial hold on Syria.
In Asia, where China is competing with the US and its allies for primacy, flash points in the South China Sea, including in the waters surrounding the Philippines and around Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula, look even more precarious.
Meanwhile, the President-elect in his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida dreams of expanding American territory, not counting out the use of military force in his expressed desire to annex Canada to the US, take over the Panama Canal, and threaten an assault on Denmark’s economy with tariffs “at a very high level” if it does not surrender Greenland, while casting doubt on Denmark’s having a legitimate claim on Greenland at all.
Not since the days of William McKinley, who engaged in the Spanish-American war in the late 19th century and ended up with US control of the Philippines, Guam, and Puerto Rico, has there been an American president-elect so blatantly threatening to use force to expand American territory. Indeed, Trump’s “America First” foreign policy is anything but isolationist.
Its view for 2025 has the ICG underscoring “fresh uncertainties in Europe, Asia Pacific and the Middle East” as Trump re-ascends to presidential power. “If he doubles down on confrontation, how much risk will he tolerate? If he seeks deals, what trade-offs might these entail?”
And if Trump decides to yank the US out of those arenas — Europe, Asia Pacific, the Middle East — in its absence who and how will others fill the space abandoned by America?
There are those who actually see Trump’s impetuousness positively, with foes and allies kept on their toes — the former deterred even as concessions are extracted from the latter. For instance, his pressuring NATO to increase defense spending is shaking up the complacency about security in the continent as much as Putin’s Russian aggression has.
However, unpredictability could just as well backfire, with miscalculations as much a risk no matter how careful everyone is about provoking all-out confrontation.
If the US under Trump gets too hawkish, a foe could respond in kind or an ally, say the Philippines, Taiwan, or Israel, could overstep, prompting retaliation from China or Iran, and dragging America into conflict.
However, if Trump hesitates or refuses outright to act on an ally attacked, an adversary — Russia, North Korea, Red China — could very well decide to test Trump’s willingness to come to the aid of an ally, prompting a political reaction in Washington that would force his hand.
As it is, the ICG sees a world that will continue to be fraught with risks, with most of the current major geopolitical tensions looking set to continue, belligerents even more indifferent to civilian suffering, and adversaries attempting to seize more chunks of neighboring territories.
“Looks like most of today’s wars will rage on, in some cases punctuated by ceasefires that will hold until geopolitical winds shift or opportunities to finish off rivals arise,” says the organization.
Trump could strike a deal with Pyongyang or Tehran that would reshape Asian or Middle Eastern security, or with the People’s Republic of China that would prevent competition from breaking out into actual conflict, or with Moscow that could cool things down.
However, dire scenarios — in Asia, a flare-up in the South China Sea, a Chinese attack on Taiwan, a wider conflict in Europe, an attempt to vanquish Iran’s regime, or the mass expulsion of Palestinians that would spark a conflagration in the Middle East — can’t be ruled out.
As events take place and potential conflict involving Ukraine and European security, Israel and Palestine, Iran versus Israel and the US, the US and Mexico, China and the US, the Korean Peninsula, and elsewhere increase, the world looks conditioned for change.
Whether this takes place at the negotiating table — and we hope it does — or on the battleground remains to be seen.
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