Syria’s vacuum post-Assad

Syria’s vacuum post-Assad | Daily Tribune

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s exile to Russia is a watershed moment in Middle Eastern geopolitics, with far-reaching consequences for both the region and the international community. This follows years of civil war, worldwide censure and the diplomatic isolation of the Assad regime. By going to Moscow, Assad signals a shift in power relations, both within Syria and across the geopolitical landscape.

Assad’s departure leaves a vacuum in Syria’s political framework, allowing other actors to vie for power. The most immediate rivals include rebel factions, Kurdish groups and remnants of the Islamic State (IS). In the absence of centralized authority, Syria risks being fragmented into zones controlled by diverse entities, potentially intensifying internal strife and hampering stabilization efforts.

Turkey, which has a vested interest in northern Syria, may step up its military actions to repress Kurdish autonomy movements along its border. Meanwhile, Iran-backed militias may increase their influence in crucial strategic areas, reinforcing Tehran’s position in shaping Syria’s destiny.

Assad’s exile likewise hinders recent Arab efforts to reintegrate Syria into regional politics. Countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, which have shown a willingness to reestablish relations with Damascus, may reconsider their approach. While Assad’s departure could be viewed as an opportunity to rebuild Syria under new leadership, the lack of agreement on who should succeed him may stymie progress toward regional assimilation.

As things stand, there’s more than meets the eye with Donald Trump being one of the first to announce to the world the exit of Assad from Syria. This may be seen by Russia as adding insult to injury, as Assad had always been its puppet — one it saved so many times before, but this time around, dropped like a hot potato. For the Russians, Assad had become more trouble than for whatever benefit they could derive from having someone control Syria.

As Russia takes Assad into its fold (to retire, escape prosecution as a war criminal, or stage a potential comeback), its image as a solid backer of regional allies has been tarnished, in the same way that its failed invasion of Ukraine has exposed it as a lesser superpower than the United States and perhaps even China.

By going into asylum in Russia, Assad may have escaped the ultimate fate of Libyan strongman Moammar Ghaddafy (killed by his rioting countrymen) and Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein (hanged for his crimes against his people). The last thing Assad wants is to be handed to the European Union and tried as a war criminal.

Geopolitical experts say Assad’s absence will affect Washington’s strategy toward Syria. While the US has historically opposed his leadership, his flight does not ensure the formation of a pro-Western regime. Trump may have to strike a difficult balance between backing democratic initiatives and preventing extremist organizations from seizing power. At the same time, the United States may face pressure to work with neighboring nations such as Turkey and even Iran (Trump is always a negotiator) to manage the aftermath.

A return to conflict in Syria following Assad’s departure could result in new waves of refugees seeking sanctuary in Europe. The European Union, already dealing with the long-term implications of the 2015 migrant crisis, may need to work with Turkey and other transit nations to address possible humanitarian issues. This scenario highlights the interconnectedness of Middle Eastern stability and European internal politics.

Let’s not forget China. Beijing has played a cautious but increasingly involved role in Middle Eastern affairs, and it may view Assad’s exile as a chance to enhance its influence in Syria. Beijing’s infrastructure and reconstruction investments may rise, in line with its broader Belt and Road Initiative. However, China’s involvement would most likely be pragmatic, avoiding deep involvement in Syria’s internal conflicts.

For the Filipinos in Syria, whom the Department of Foreign Affairs placed under Alert Level 4 — mandating their voluntary repatriation — the option to leave their second home may not be enticing, having been toughened by the nearly perpetual strife in the country. While the Philippine government has laid down attractive repatriation and assimilation packages for distressed Filipinos abroad, Filipinos in Syria, like most others, may choose to wait and see.

Globally, the US, EU and China will need to strike a cautious balance of diplomacy, strategic ties, and humanitarian aid to deal with the fallout from Assad’s exile. As the dust settles, the world will be watching to see how this chapter in Syria’s turbulent history unfolds, with the potential to shape regional geopolitics for years.