Debatable pre-poll surveys

Political analysts are looking at the recent US elections to assess the effectiveness of opinion polls in predicting election outcomes.

Most pre-election surveys in the US indicated a close race for president, with some even showing a popular vote victory for Democrat Kamala Harris. However, Donald Trump ultimately won both the Electoral College and the popular vote by more than three million votes.

Political strategist Gilberto Lauengco pointed out that certain factors still support the use of pre-election surveys.

Although Trump won convincingly, the result was still within the margin of error of the polls, which was 2.2 percent.

Lauengco explained that, based on the margin of error, the US surveys were technically not incorrect. The issue lay with how the polls were interpreted, as many predicted a victory for one candidate despite the margin of error clearly indicating that victory was not certain.

He added that some of Trump’s supporters did not generally participate in polls, while those inclined to vote Democratic were more likely to engage in surveys. As a result, it was suggested that Trump supporters were underrepresented in the polls. In contrast, Lauengco noted that there is no similar hesitation to participate in polls in the Philippines.

Additionally, surveys in the US are typically conducted via landline phone calls, cell phones, or online platforms. In the Philippines, however, surveys are predominantly done face-to-face. According to survey specialists, face-to-face surveys tend to be more accurate than other methods, which is another factor to consider.

Thus, while surveys can serve a useful purpose for candidates, relying solely on them can be self-deceptive.

DBP, PSALM reap benefits

The recent positive action from S&P Global Ratings is expected to benefit key state-owned institutions, including the Development Bank of the Philippines (DBP) and Power Sector Assets & Liabilities Management Corp. (PSALM), both of which received positive outlooks.

S&P’s move signals improved financial prospects for these agencies. PSALM, which has struggled with debt, is expected to recover more quickly, while DBP, which has been posting significant profits, will likely see even larger gains.

“We believe the country’s institutional settings, which contributed to a significant enhancement in the sovereign’s credit metrics over the past decade, will continue to strengthen,” said S&P. In simpler terms, this means that fiscal management, backed by reforms, continues to improve.

As one of the two national government-owned universal banks, DBP plays a critical role in implementing the government’s medium-term development strategy.

The positive outlook on PSALM suggests a higher likelihood of continued government support for the company, which plays a crucial role in restructuring the country’s power sector.

PSALM is the holding company of the country’s power assets, including contracts with independent power producers.

PSALM’s debt increased due to the “take or pay” provision in power contracts, which requires the government to compensate power plant owners whether or not they are generating electricity.