A ‘Monster’ of a scenario
“This scenario drawn up by Espeño sees Beijing worsening the situation by deploying bigger, more sophisticated ships at sea.
Daily Tribune“This scenario drawn up by Espeño sees Beijing worsening the situation by deploying bigger, more sophisticated ships at sea.
Fishermen at the joint public hearing of the House Committee on National Defense and Security and the special committee on the West Philippine Sea in Masinloc, Zambales on 24 May were reportedly not too happy about the results of the meeting.
Why? Mainly because many of the fishermen felt the lawmakers were not able to give them enough assurances that they would be safe from China Coast Guard (CCG) harassment.
One fisherman at the meeting was Nolly de los Santos who said he could no longer provide for his kids’ education now that he and his fellow fishers were being prevented from fishing at Bajo de Masinloc.
In Tagalog, De los Santos said, “We are suffering, and aid doled out is not the same as our need for a genuine assurance that we would be able to freely fish in our own waters.”
And now, the fishermen’s anxieties have intensified with China’s imposition of a four-month unilateral fishing ban starting 1 May. Earlier, Beijing announced its CCG will apprehend and detain for two months, beginning 15 June, sans trial trespassers in waters it claims are its own.
The fishing ban, expected to last until mid-September, extends to all coastal states whose fishermen tread the waters within the 10-dash line so-called by the Chinese which virtually encompasses the entire SCS.
Southeast Asia Research Programme researcher Janhavin Pande at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies in India contends that such a fishing ban is “contrived in both law and politics, seeming innocuous in the light of China’s efforts to conserve and revive fish stocks while simultaneously carrying with its undertones of China’s ‘grey zone warfare’ in the SCS.”
To reinforce its warning of detention of “illegal trespassers” while amplifying fears of fisherfolk and raising the hackles of Philippine officialdom even further, China has deployed what is known as currently the world’s largest Coast Guard vessel in Philippine waters.
Officially designated as China Coast Guard 5901, the vessel has made its way to Scarborough Shoal.
On Friday last week, the marine behemoth, along with a smaller CCG vessel, was spotted some 50 nautical miles (93 kilometers) off the disputed Scarborough Shoal, well within the Philippines’ 200-nautical mile (370-kilometer) EEZ.
Dubbed “The Monster,” the 165-meter vessel was launched in 2016 to, for all intents and purposes, conduct anti-trespassing operations. Its presence in Philippine waters, particularly at this time, is daunting, amid China’s expressed intent to move against “trespassers” starting mid-June, and certain to heighten tensions between China and the Philippines.
Jay Batongbacal, head of the UP College of Law’s Institute of Maritime Affairs and the Law of the Sea, has pointed out that the problem with that regulation is that there is no clarity on up to where it can be applied. “China has marked its boundaries in the South China Sea everywhere, so they can arrest and detain people” as they wish.
He contends, “The regulation’s basis is arbitrary; they (China) have no boundaries in the West Philippine Sea. These are all imaginary (on their part); there would be no border crossings.”
Joshua Espeña, resident fellow and vice president of the International Development and Security Cooperation, has urged the Marcos government to strongly communicate to the Chinese side that it would be compelled to resist arrests, with the latter regarded as acts of aggression.
“The government must communicate this to the Chinese to dissuade any untoward incidents,” he said. “As the President himself had said on his working visit to Australia, a regional conflict might be triggered because of miscalculations.”
But, observed Espeña, “it is telling that Beijing is forcing Manila’s hand in this dangerous scenario by decisively calculating that arrests will make them achieve their objectives overnight. We imagine a scenario from mere arrest to a deadly standoff deteriorating into a limited regional conflict as Philippine security forces seek to rescue Filipino fishermen followed by China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy vessels entry to dissuade the Philippines from making further moves, inevitably involving the Philippine armed forces.”
This scenario drawn up by Espeño sees Beijing worsening the situation by deploying bigger, more sophisticated ships at sea. At that juncture, the Philippine government would likely consult with the US, which already has some presence in Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement bases.
“All parts of the country will be put on high alert, bringing in more US forces to strike against Chinese targets; the latter will, of course, intensify its activities, but it also risks the US bringing everything to the table,” he said.
What a dire scenario that is, indeed, but alas, one that we fear — realistically — is not too far-fetched.
