The political teakettle brews in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao. Never mind that the May 2025 elections are still a year away. Political parties are agog prepping for the maiden parliamentary election. General assemblies were conducted. They all wanted to show their numbers which they could use as a promotion tool for the forthcoming election.

But why such a gross interest in numbers? Optics play a crucial role in elections. They could be the swing or shift factor that will make winners and losers. The gullible public is easily swayed by perception — that those who command great rally numbers have the upper hand. Media and people judge their strength by the numbers they can muster.

The parties signaled that they are prepared and gearing up to engage other contenders in the hustings. For this purpose, they had to maximize attendance by party members and sympathizers in a public display of force. Their call for attendance resonated through the region.

As observed in past articles, the 1st General Assembly of the MILF party, the United Bangsamoro Justice Party, had the biggest attendance. It was more of a strategic move to convene it in the remote municipality of Poona-Bayabao, Lanao del Sur, far from the capital to show how the attendees were closely clustered together in jampacked grounds. True, there were kilometers of roads leading to the locus that were closed to traffic due to the congestion which affected the main national highway. Motorists and pedestrians were fuming mad over the Edsa-like bumper-to-bumper congestion. The count varied from 30,000 to 40,000 people depending upon the objectivity or bias of the estimator.

Opposing camps claimed the multitude was drawn by the attendance of the interim Chief Minister, his Cabinet and the Members of Parliament. The employees and staff of the BARMM were mobilized to encourage attendance. The Assembly by all accounts was successful in conveying the message of the UBJP’s strength.

The UBJP Assembly was preceded a week earlier by the 1st Assembly of the Samahang Inklusibo Alyansa Progresibo (SIAP) hosted by Governor Bombit Adiong and Marawi City Mayor Sultan Majul Gandamra. It was by far the biggest gathering in the newly constructed Sarimanok Sports Center, at the so-called “ground zero,” with an overflow crowd of about 10,000.

What made the SIAP Assembly significant was the formation of the Bangsamoro Grand Coalition of prominent Muslim political titans from Sulu (Gov. Sakur Tan), Basilan (Rep. Mujiv Hataman), Maguindanao del Sur (husband and wife, Secretary Teng and Gov. Maryam Mangudadatu) and Lanao Sur (Gov. Adiong and Mayor Gandamra). It was historic.

For the first time in the political history of the region, leaders cast aside tribal and political differences to come together and unite to promote the interests of the stakeholder Muslims. The coalition is definitely a force to contend with. While the numbers could not compete with the UBJP Assembly, the prominence of the leaders who attended very much made up for the difference in attendance.

A week after the UBJP Assembly, the Bangsamoro Party (BaPa) of the Moro National Liberation Front, Muslimen Sema wing, held its own gathering in Cotabato City. Chair Muslimen Sema led the crowd which according to estimates numbered about 20,000. It was a viable number considering the Semas are no longer in the prime of their power and influence.

They may be fewer in number but their political spirit to spar with the other parties is no less strong. The highlight was the public statement of Chair Sema that they are open to a coalition with the UBJP that will unite the fractious rebels. This added fuel to the speculations of an election pitting the dynasties against the mujahideens.

The UBJP Asembly in Basilan had considerable numbers. What intrigued analysts is the opposing memberships of brothers Congressman Mujiv and Governor Jim Hataman, the former with SCIAP (BGA) and the latter with UBJP.

Capping these assemblies was the one in Maimbung, Sulu of the Salaam Party which made the historic decision to choose Sulu strongman Abdusakur Tan as its candidate for Prime Minister.

But hold your horses, readers. It’s still too early to place your bets. The election is still far away and variables are aplenty that could affect the chances of the political parties.

amb_mac_lanto @yahoo.com