The Philippine civilian convoy sailing to Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough Shoal) from 14 to 17 May on a supply mission in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) is risking a face-off with dozens of Chinese vessels reportedly deployed to the area.

Maritime security analyst Ray Powell said in his recent X (formerly Twitter) post that China “is sending a huge force” to block off Bajo de Masinloc and prevent the civilian convoy from reaching it.

“By this time tomorrow, at least four (China) coast guard and 26 large maritime militia ships (will be) on blockade (not counting “dark” vessels),” Powell, a former US Air Force officer and ex-defense attaché, said Monday.

Powell noted that this was by “far the largest blockade” he had tracked at Bajo de Masinloc.

“China seems determined to aggressively enforce its claim over the shoal, which it seized control of from the Philippines in 2012,” he added.

Undeterred mission

Rafaela David, co-convenor of the Atin Ito coalition, said the civilian mission to the WPS will proceed as scheduled despite the reported huge force of Chinese vessels heading to the shoal.

David, who is also Akbayan president, said they “shall press forward with our peaceful voyage undeterred by any intimidation.”

“We will sail with determination, not provocation, to civilianize the region and safeguard our territorial integrity,” she added.

The coalition “strongly affirms” that the civilian supply mission is a “legitimate exercise” of Filipino citizens’ right to movement within our territory, she said.

“Our mission is peaceful, based on international law, and aimed at asserting our sovereign rights,” David stressed, adding that the reported heavy presence of Chinese marine vessels at Bajo de Masinloc is “lamentable, but not surprising.”

The mission is delivering food and other supplies to Filipino fishermen at the shoal.

“China’s actions are failing to intimidate Filipinos. Instead, they are only uniting us and inspiring us to go further in defending our rights. Atin Ito shall press forward with our peaceful voyage undeterred by any intimidation,” the coalition said.

David said they would sail with “determination, not provocation” to civilianize the region and safeguard our territorial integrity.

Ensuring safety

Meanwhile, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) spokesperson for the WPS, Commodore Jay Tarriela, maintained the government has nothing to do with the coalition’s initiative to sail to Bajo de Masinloc, the scene of several China water cannon attacks against Philippine vessels.

In a press conference on Monday, Tarriela noted that Powell uses satellites to monitor the movement of Chinese vessels.

“He is actually forecasting that the vessels he monitored are heading to Bajo de Masinloc. The intention is to block the Atin Ito sail to BDM. But again, these are just forecasts, a prediction of what would transpire,” he said.

Tarriela said Atin Ito’s initiative is not sanctioned by the National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea or by the PCG.

“They are doing this as members of civil society advocating for awareness in the West Philippine Sea. For the Philippine Coast Guard, our objective is to ensure the safety of those who will be joining it,” he said.

“We have to make sure they will not be harassed or injured by the Chinese Coast Guard,” he added.