In the midst of all the saber-rattling by jingoists (and no, I’m not talking about diehard fans of Jinggoy Estrada) demanding an eye-for-an-eye response to China Coast Guard vessels firing water cannons at our ships in the West Philippine Sea (WPS), I agree with our government when it says that we are not going to fight fire with fire (or more properly, fight water with water) and are thus going to refrain from using our water cannons against the Chinese.

Don’t get me wrong; I am as angered as anyone by the Chinese bullying tactics and have written many times against it in X (formerly Twitter) and my columns in this paper. But at this time, refusing to escalate tensions may be the more prudent path.

Before that joke Jay Tarriela brands me a fifth columnist, I will tell you why I say so. Should things in the WPS deteriorate into a shooting war and our ships start duking it out with the Chinese, our Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with the United States won’t amount to a hill of beans when it comes to expecting good ole Uncle Sam to come to our rescue.

But the US President has reiterated time and again that the MDT is “ironclad,” you say. Well, flash report: the President of the United States has no power to wage war on behalf of the US. Only the US Congress may declare war against any country. And as things stand, Biden the Absentminded cannot guarantee that Congress will stand by him over Filipinos and Chinese trading shots in the middle of an ocean far far away over some wave-washed rocks.

The USA used to be the real “policeman of the world,” never hesitating to get involved in wars continents and several time zones away. The two World Wars are a testament to that. The same held when the US dipped her fingers – nay, mailed fists! — in the Korean Peninsula and Vietnam. But that was before China was a credible challenger to its military power in Asia. And also before the American body politic developed a distaste for thousands of its young citizens coming back in body bags.

Lately, though, those eager-beaver warmongers who think that America is the real-life land of The Avengers who can beat any “villain” in any conflict must know that the US has been losing its wars lately. It lost badly in the Korean War when, after tens of thousands of its soldiers died, the peninsula remained divided when China entered the fray on the side of the North. And that was the time when China was hardly the regional superpower it is today.

It was also humiliated in the Vietnam War, its muscular Marines equipped with then cutting-edge combat hardware falling prey by the thousands to farmers armed with obsolete rifles and wearing copra slippers. And the sad spectacle of American troops withdrawing in disgrace and leaving behind in panic billions of dollars worth of materiel before the onslaught of Taliban fighters in Afghanistan, whose jihadists were simple villagers raising goats, is still of recent memory.

South Korea and the US also have an MDT practically identical to ours. Yet, the hawks among us should read about the two naval Battles of Yeonpyeong (1999 and 2002) when the North Koreans fired at their Southern adversaries in a dispute over maritime territory. Many lives were lost on both sides, and warships were even sunk, but at both times, the United States only stood idly by. Later (in 2010), the North and South engaged in a fierce artillery duel on Yeonpyeong Island, where the South Korean territorial island was hit with scores of shells launched by the North.

In all of those instances, only Korean lives were lost (soldiers and civilians), Korean ships sunk, and Korean towns leveled. The Americans? They watched from afar, their ships and sailors safe — The Fence Sitters.