Indie bet threatens to steal Biden votes

With environmental lawyer and conspiracy theorist Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s rising support based on polls, he has become an obstacle to United States President Joe Biden’s reelection bid.

Democrats’ fear have a basis as Green Party candidates leeched votes from Al Gore and Hillary Clinton, who were beaten by Republicans George W. Bush and Donald Trump in the 2016 and 2020 elections, respectively.

“Hyper-polarization is the reason that a third-party candidate with name recognition is such a threat at this time,” said Donald Nieman, a professor and political analyst at New York state’s Binghamton University.

“There are only six or seven truly competitive states, and some of those states will be decided by as few as 10-20,000 votes. So anything that siphons a group of usually reliable voters away could be a deciding factor.”

Kennedy’s popularity is currently around 10 percent in terms of election polling averages which complicates the strategy for the Biden campaign. He has yet to secure ballot access in most of the country though.

RFK Jr. has enough support to compete in six states and is aiming to raise one million signatures to qualify in all 50.

“Kennedy represents a real threat to the Biden campaign in key swing states,” adds Charlie Kolean, the chief strategist at conservative political consultancy RED PAC.

“He’s polling exceptionally well with independents and the younger generation — groups that have traditionally voted for Biden.”

Moreover, Kennedy moved some way to closing the funding gap, naming as his running mate Nicole Shanahan, a Californian former Democratic donor with deep pockets.

Nahigian described Shanahan, an attorney and philanthropist, as “very far left” and unlikely to peel off Trump supporters. But he warned Republicans and Democrats alike against complacency.

“Independent candidates make a big impact on an election and it doesn’t matter if you’re a sitting president, if you’re a former president — you have to take it seriously,” Nahigian said.

“You’ve seen the last couple of weeks both Trump and Biden really start attacking RFK because they now see him as a viable threat, especially to Biden in these key states where he is losing right now.”