While the world watches and wishes for a favorable outcome of the heated West Philippine Sea conflict, the US military and some American geopolitical seers believe Taiwan would be the tipping point for an actual skirmish.

An all-out Chinese strike on Taiwan, which seems imminent based on the gearing up by Beijing and the pronouncements of its officials, will impact not only Asia but may cause the global economy to tailspin into an unprecedented depression.

According to a special report by The Heritage Foundation titled “The American Case for Taiwan,” the effect on trade would be massive, as the global supply chain would halt.

The Heritage Foundation is a conservative Washington DC-based think tank advising high political figures.

The report discusses the US’ involvement with its treaty allies, the Philippines and Japan.

According to the report, “Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. acknowledged in February 2023 that his country would be ‘on the front lines’ of any such conflict and that ‘it’s very hard to imagine a scenario where the Philippines will not somehow get involved.’”

It would also draw in Japan because the supply of essential goods required for its existence depends on Taiwan’s fate.

“Chinese control of Taiwan would make Japan so vulnerable that in 2021, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe candidly declared that ‘a Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency, and therefore an emergency for Japan–US alliance,’” The Heritage Foundation’s Michael Cunningham writes.

If a Chinese attack on Taiwan turns into a Sino-Japanese war, the US would almost certainly be compelled to defend its treaty ally, where roughly 56,000 US service members are stationed, according to the report.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has repeatedly called for the “reunification” of mainland China with the sovereign nation of Taiwan, though the Chinese Communist Party never ruled the island.

Xi has, on some occasions, said that Chinese reunification must be achieved even through force.

Cunningham, a research fellow in The Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center, explains how the US might not be able to remain neutral in the event of a war over Taiwan, noting that tens of thousands of US citizens living on the island would be directly impacted.

Unless most of (the Americans) could be evacuated before the conflict starts, which The Heritage Foundation study describes as an unlikely and Herculean task that historically has proven difficult in other conflict areas, “a Chinese assault on the island would almost certainly result in a substantial number of American casualties given the proximity of the (People’s Liberation Army’s) likely targets to population centers.”

Cunningham then cited examples of when Americans were killed by foreign actors, including the Lusitania’s sinking by Germany in 1915, the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor by Japan in 1941, and the terrorist attacks by al-Qaeda on 11 September 2001, “that resulted in the US entry into both world wars and the ‘war on terrorism.’”

Although it would not be an attack on American soil, thousands of Americans dead at the hands of the [Chinese Communist Party] would likely produce a substantial public backlash and pressure on the President to respond forcefully, the report postulates.

The report’s grim scenarios only underline the need for the world to reach a peaceful resolution of the sea conflict, likely through a regional summit involving both China and the US.