Preempt double trouble

Preempt double trouble | Daily Tribune

The dream of turning the restive areas in Mindanao, and consequently the country’s food basket, into zones of peace remains a distant dream with the constant disruptions by terror groups such as the Dawlah Islamiya, Abu Sayyaf and Maute groups.

Deceitful attacks, such as the Sunday ambush of four soldiers returning to camp with rice they had bought for the “iftar,” the evening meal eaten by Muslims at sunset to break their daily fast during Ramadan, signaled that the extremists are still capable of disrupting the tentative peace.

The soldiers, three of them from the 40th Infantry Battalion, and one from the 3rd Army Cavalry under the 601st Infantry Brigade, were killed in the municipality of Datu Hoffer, Maguindanao del Sur.

According to experts tracking terror organizations, pro-Islamic State groups are engaged in a last-ditch struggle to disrupt the Bangsamoro peace process before the autonomous region’s first elections in May next year.

Making the culmination of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao or BARMM process work through the polls will have a profound impact on the peace prospect.

Islamic militants are betting on peace in the Bangsamoro to falter that, in turn, will pave the way for conflict to break out.

Haroro Ingram, senior expert on the Philippine situation for the United States Institute of Peace, said the failure of the BARMM would have serious repercussions for both Philippine and regional stability.

The breakout of an armed conflict in Mindanao would also stretch out the already limited resources of the country which is currently focused on challenges from the maritime conflict with China.

“The return of unrest in the south would require Manila to redeploy its military for internal security operations and abandon an intended repositioning of its armed forces for territorial defense,” Ingram said.

IS sympathizer groups have been under intense pressure from the counterterrorism operations of the military and the police.

These operations have killed key leaders, most notably ISEA’s emir, Faharudin Hadji Satar aka Abu Zacharia, who was killed in Marawi City in June 2023.

Ingram also credited a variety of programs designed to attract defectors and reintegrate them back into their communities as having greatly reduced the ranks of extremist fighters and supporters.

Yet the most potent deterrent would be the success of the Bangsamoro Transition Authority in delivering on governance and development promises, the Philippine government’s championing of the peace process, and the tireless work of local grassroots peacebuilders.

Not so different from managing the West Philippine Sea threat, the government must seek international support in the fight against terror.

According to Ingram, the key to managing cascading risks in the southern Philippines is “preventing the toppling of that triggering domino” referring to the failure of the BARMM process.

The United States can play a significant role in helping to maintain the peace in the Bangsamoro, he indicated.

Meeting the requirements of the political, legal and normalization tracks of the peace process, especially the reintegration of former combatants, will be essential and an area where the US can greatly assist.

Ingram added that ensuring that vulnerable communities are prioritized during the remaining months of the transition period should also be a priority.

“Gaps remain that the United States could address through targeted, high-impact but relatively low-cost initiatives,” the regional expert indicated.

A combination of top-down political solutions and bottom-up grassroots local peacebuilding will be crucial for achieving lasting peace and drying up the pool of recruits for violent peace spoilers like the IS fanatics.

The rewards of peace would be beyond imagination considering that the areas where the IS and other rebel groups are have largely untapped economic potential.