Headline inflation in the country most likely resumed its upward trend in February due to price increases for key food items and petroleum prices last month, private economists said over the weekend.

A DAILY TRIBUNE poll of analysts yielded a median estimate of 3.1 percent for February inflation, settling within the 2.8 to 3.6 percent forecast by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas or BSP.

Should this be realized, the rate would surpass the 2.8 percent January print speed but lag behind the 3.0 January 2022 print in time.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release the inflation figures for February tomorrow, 5 March.

Security Bank Chief Economist Robert Dan Roces said that the Philippines likely experienced a slight increase in inflation for February, projecting a month-on-month price growth of 0.4 percent.

“We attribute this estimate to continued price hikes in essential food items like rice, meat, and fish, coupled with rising costs of petroleum and electricity,” Roces said in an emailed commentary.

“However, some offsetting may be seen from lower prices for vegetables, fruits, and sugar,” Roces added.

In a separate emailed commentary, UnionBank Chief Economist Ruben Carlo Asuncion said the country’s headline inflation is expected to peak in the range of 5 percent year-on-year in June and July before tapering off to a low of 3.5 percent as fading base effects meet the impact of the drought in September.

Asuncion added that the broad food inflation would exceed 6 percent year-on-year starting in April due to the effects of the drought on food supply and cascade lower in August as the El Niño effects wear off for an annual average of 4.7 percent, from 2023’s 7.9 percent.

“Barring oil price volatility triggered by escalating geopolitical risks, our CPI trajectory includes a benign transport inflation, although upticks are projected later in the year,” Asuncion said.

“(We expect) the 2024 CPI transport inflation to match last year’s average of 1.6 percent. From last year’s average of 7.4 percent, we expect the annual inflation for CPI restaurants and accommodation services to ease to 5.2 percent this year,” he added.

Meanwhile, Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation Chief Economist Michael Ricafort said there might be some pick up in year-on-year inflation for February 2024 and the coming months of 2024 later this year due to the dry spell, which could reduce rice production and other agricultural products.

“Further local policy rate pause or even rate cut/s (especially later 2024) could already be possible for the coming months, as fundamentally supported by the easing inflation trend as seen recently amid higher base/denominator effects,” Ricafort said.