Estimations of rice imports worldwide will not be beneficial for all industrial key players, for these only make global prices spike, said a farmer’s group.

Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura, or Sinag, said this following the United States Department of Agriculture's latest report on Friday.

In its Grain: World Markets and Trade projection, the USDA cited that the Philippines is expected to import 3.9 million metric tons of rice, an increase from the earlier estimation of 3.8 MT in January, due to “strong recent purchases from Vietnam.”

According to Sinag, USDA estimations are inaccurate, using as an example their forecast last year that the Philippines would import 3.9 million metric tons of rice when the actual 2023 total importation was 3.22 million MT.

“That means their estimation is not accurate, and we think that once the US projects that the import demand is high, it becomes a trigger for the global price of rice to increase,” Sinag executive director Jayson Cainglet told the DAILY TRIBUNE.

Cainglet said that the current global rice price is not going below 600 US dollars per MT and that the lowest is valued at 650 USD per MT.

“The projection is not doing us any good because the global price is only increasing,” he said, noting that it is difficult to have a rice import projection since it is not yet harvest season.

“It's difficult to estimate now because our farmers haven't harvested yet; it's still in April…starting at the end of March, so that's when we'll know our actual progress and production; that's when we'll see how much is really needed.”

Cainglet said their estimation of rice to be imported is approximately 3 million MT, stressing that it would still depend on the upcoming months’ harvest, along with a good domestic amount of rice buffer stock.

"In fact, the two years of high imports have increased our stocks, and we don't know yet; it's really difficult to estimate.”

He added, “The problem now is that even if we rely on importation, because it is very high, even the importers are importing right now. That's why our farmgate [prices] increased because even those who were not procuring rice before have intervened now because rice is expensive in the global market.”

The Sinag official said that unlike in previous years, estimations can't be easily projected at the present through standing crops due to the onslaught of the El Niñophenomenon, and that it's during harvest season when they will identify if the domestic harvest is sufficient to meet local demands.

“The problem is because now there is El Niño and it is ongoing, so while the crops are still standing…when they are harvested, that's when we will know if the harvest is light or small.”

He added, “That's why we wonder at the USDA: How can they project while it's not yet harvested? The palays are still there. They are yet to be harvested. They don't know how much we will harvest because it depends on the impact of El Niño on our farmlands.”

Indonesia incurred the highest rice import increase, from the previous 2.5 million forecasts last month to 2.9 million today. The change in estimation was due to “continued large government purchases.

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and the US also registered an increment in rice imports.

Meanwhile, the Department of Agriculture assured the public earlier that enough rice supply can be expected in the first half of this year due to recent imports and the nearing harvest.

"We have enough rice supply, so prices should remain stable through the first half of the year. Our priority now is market stability,” Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said, noting that rice prices may remain high through September following the potential effects of drought on global rice supply and a possible increase in demand for the crop.

"What we need to guard against now are profiteers who may attempt to exploit the situation by using El Niño as an excuse to hoard rice supplies to push local prices to unreasonably high levels.”

The National Irrigation Authority also expressed optimism late last month regarding the good domestic palay harvest despite El Niño because of the government interventions implemented, including the provision of high-yielding varieties of seeds to the affected farmers and alternative wetting and drying technologies, adding that local palay yield is higher when it's sunny.

Moreover, the DA confirmed last month that the country reached its largest rice harvest in history in 2023, with a volume of 20.06 million MT.

This is following the Philippine Statistics Authority data, which showed that the local palay output in 2023 was 1.5 percent higher than the 2022 volume of 19.76 million MT.