Although the recorded overall inflation slowed in January 2024, the country has recorded the highest rice price inflation at the national level in 14 years, the Philippines Statistics Authority said on Tuesday.

PSA chief and National Statistician Claire Dennis Mapa said rice inflation climbed to 22.6% last month from 19.6% in December 2023.

In the last month of last year, the rate of increase in the rice cost kicked the highest in 14 years, wherein rice inflation accelerated to 19.6% from 15.8% recorded in November 2023, making it the fastest rice inflation since March 2009, when it was recorded at 22.9%.

The PSA chief linked the faster price of rice inflation to the low base where the rice price came from January to July 2023, also noting that rice prices in the world market are high.

“Dito naman sa inflation natin, kung titingnan natin yung time series nung rice inflation in 2023, ito ay mababa mula January hanggang July of 2023. Nagkaroon lang tayo ng pagtaas nung August last year, talagang pumalo siya nung September, and then nagtuloy-tuloy na.” (As for our inflation, if we look at the time series of rice inflation in 2023, it is low from January to July of 2023. We only had an increase in August last year, it really hit in September, and then continued.)

“May mababang base na pinanggalingan ang presyo ng bigas. Ang aming kalkulasyon ay patuloy itong tataas in terms of inflation rate simply because the base is relatively low in 2023." (The price of rice has a low base of origin. We calculate that it will continue to increase in terms of inflation rate simply because the base is relatively low in 2023), he continued.

Mapa added that the statistic bureau tracked the movements in average prices of three sub-rice groups: regular-milled, well-milled, and special rice.

For regular milled rice, Mapa said the average price last month was P49.65 per kilo, over P10.00 up from P39.60 per kilo in January 2023. It had a year-on-year increase of around 25.4%, said Mapa.

In December 2023, it was registered at P48.48 per kilo. It recorded a 2.4% increase from last month’s price.

For well-milled rice, the PSA official said it was registered at P54.91 per kilo last month, higher compared to P43.92 per kilo in the same month last year, recording a 25% year-on-year increase.

Last December, its average price was P53.82, indicating an approximate 2% month-on-month increase.

For special rice, the average price last month was P63.90 per kilo, a rise from P53.76 per kilo in the same month last year. It registered an 18.9% year-on-year increase.

Last December, it was priced at an average of P63.8, hitting a 1.3% month-on-month increase.

When asked when the expected increase in rice price will persist, Mapa answered: “Sa world market, mataas ang presyo ang tinitignan natin. Sa discussion with the Department of Agriculture, nakikita nila patuloy ang pagtaas.” (In the world market, we are looking at high prices. In the discussion with the Department of Agriculture, they see a continuous increase.)

“Our expectation is [that] we will have rice inflation in the vicinity of 20% or higher until July,” he continued.

The country’s headline inflation was reported to slow down to 2.8% last month—the lowest inflation rate since October 2020, when it was recorded at 2.3%.

In the 2.8% overall inflation rate, rice contributed 1.3 percentage points, said Mapa.