Saudi Arabia and Israel, prior to the war in Gaza being waged by the latter against Hamas, were on shifting sands, their relationship in flux, moving towards pragmatic cooperation and possible normalization.

Notwithstanding the lack of official ties as Saudi Arabia, like most Arab countries, never recognized the state of Israel, the two countries were seeing increased engagement.

Driven by shared security concerns over the rogue state that is Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia were pivoting into a middle ground in 2023. Saudi officials, led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, even suggested at the time that normalization was “getting closer.”

But the 7 October 2023 attack by Hamas on Israel that killed about 1,140 civilians, and Israel’s unrelenting attacks in Gaza that have reportedly already resulted in over 26,000 dead Palestinians, women and children included, have upended the road to improved Israel-Saudi relations.

Reacting to the interim verdict handed down the other day by the United Nation’s top court on the charges of genocide raised by South Africa against Israel over its war in Gaza, Saudi Arabia has retreated into its shell.

In welcoming the decision of the International Court of Justice, Saudi Arabia called on the international community to “hold Israel accountable” for “violations” of international law.

In that initial ruling, the ICJ threw out Israel’s motion to dismiss South Africa’s complaint while directing the Jewish nation to ensure that genocide does not result from its military actions in Gaza. It also urged Hamas to release the remaining hostages, including the two dozen or so bodies of those it had kidnapped that had died.

The Saudi statement aligned perfectly with what was expected from other Arab nations, with Qatar’s foreign ministry calling the ICJ decision a “victory for humanity.” Kuwait was more neutral in urging Israel to “respect this decision, as well as the principles of international law.”

Elsewhere, Israel being a traditional ally of America, the United States maintained that genocide allegations against Israel in Gaza were “unfounded,” adding: “We continue to believe that allegations of genocide are unfounded and note the court did not make a finding about genocide or call for a ceasefire in its ruling.”

Kind of naive, the motion by Israel for the ICJ to dismiss the case outright without looking at the evidence, and the US State Department’s premature statement that no genocide was established, or that the ICJ had not called for a cessation of hostilities.

The ICJ, whose rulings are legally binding but practically unenforceable, would naturally not miss another chance at its 15 minutes of fame, fangless as it is. It would not dismiss South Africa’s complaint as what’s a court without a high-profile case to decide? Why would the ICJ turn its back on its reason for being, more so at the expense of being called out for a dereliction of duty?

Expect this ICJ case to drag on for months, if not years, only for protestations that the verdict be respected by both Israel and Hamas to go for naught, just like its 2022 interim ruling telling Russia to withdraw from Ukraine. “Bloody Mir” Putin simply ignored the ICJ.

In all this, Iran is laughing because, through its proxies like Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen, it has turned the world upside down, realigning Middle Eastern forces against it back to their traditional enemy Israel. Indeed, Iran unleashed Hamas to provoke a vicious Israeli retaliation that has once again turned the Gulf region into a powderkeg.