TAIPEI — My friends here say that it's going to be a merry Christmas in Taiwan. The malls are full, people are spending a lot eating out and shopping for food, and tourist arrivals are up. In this thriving nation of some 24 million people, national elections will be held sometime next month, in a continuing process of political renewal that is the hallmark of a true democratic country.

Yet, a shadow has always loomed large over the Taiwanese, no matter how prosperous they have become (Taiwan's economy is 20th worldwide, notwithstanding its small size). And that is, of course, its neighbor across the strait: China, colossal in land mass, population, and military might.

Since Chiang Kai-Shek and his forces retreated to Taiwan in 1949 after losing the civil war to Mao Tse-Tung, the communist People's Republic of China has always vowed to retake Taiwan by force. And, in fact, Mao tried unsuccessfully several times, thwarted only by the lack then of the appropriate military assets for an amphibious assault.

Now that the PROC has one of the strongest militaries in the world — including the biggest navy, quantitatively speaking — only the United States and its Indo-Pacific allies, such as Japan and the Philippines, have prevented a forcible take-over.

The mutual defense treaty between Taiwan and the US expired in 1980 and, therefore, the latter is no longer under any treaty obligation to come to Taiwan's aid should war break out involving her. But then, under the subsisting Taiwan Relations Act, the Americans are still held to providing Taiwan with the means to defend itself. Plus — and this is the real unwritten reason, they say — the United States is almost totally dependent on Taiwan's semiconductor factories for its high technology needs, which they cannot allow to come under PROC control.

There are thus some whispers among my friends in Taiwan that the biggest factor that has stopped the PROC so far from crossing the sea and overwhelming Taiwan's comparatively small (albeit very well-equipped) armed forces is nuclear deterrence on the part of the US. This is because, as things stand, in case the US steps into any conflict between the two, it cannot be assured of gaining the upper hand in a conventional war, considering China's home-court advantage

If true, this must be the reason why the mainland is hell-bent on developing assured nuclear counterstrike capabilities against the US, which experts say will happen ten years or so from today. When that happens, even the US nuclear deterrence will disappear, and there may be nothing that could stop China from realizing its decades-long dream of reunification.

This is why some experts, including Singapore's former foreign minister George Yeo, are urging Taiwan's government to take a negotiated approach to the "Taiwan problem" while it still has some leverage left, saying that the status quo cannot be maintained indefinitely. 

While Taiwan, as stated, is presently supported by the US and its allies, America will definitely not abandon its One-China policy. And if the American-based alliance wavers in the face of the rapidly growing Chinese military capabilities, then Taiwan may have nowhere to turn.

Since the United Nations shifted its recognition of membership from Taiwan to China in 1971, Taiwan has increasingly become diplomatically isolated. It has diplomatic relations with only thirteen countries, all of them (with the possible exception of the Holy See) small island nations with little diplomatic clout. Mr. Yeo suggests a "Commonwealth type" arrangement which he claims is acceptable to many Taiwanese.

I hope for the best for the kind, polite, well-educated, industrious and honest Taiwanese, whose country is not only one of the richest, but the safest and most livable in the world. Truly, Taiwan and only in its class.