Newly appointed Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said on Monday that President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s campaign promise to lower the price of rice to P20 per kilo was not possible at this time.

In his first meeting with the press at the Department of Agriculture, Laurel said he hopes to bring down rice prices by the end of 2024.

He explained that global trade barriers and weather disturbances pushed up rice prices and similarly affected other agricultural products.

He said the dry spell brought by the El Niño weather phenomenon and the geopolitical tensions in Europe, China, the Middle East and the rest of the world have threatened agricultural production.

"Anything can happen. The P20 per kilo of rice was an aspiration. The problem now is that we're at a 15-year high in the world market," the new agriculture chief said.

"For example, the price of fish before was $230 per ton, now it's $700 per ton. So today that price of rice is not possible," Laurel explained.

He said the agriculture department will conduct data analyses and brainstorm on ways to maximize its resources to mitigate the impact of El Niño.

Irrigation needed

"I already have a plan in mind, but I have to consult with the team. And we need to irrigate more land," Laurel said.

Through new agricultural projects, Laurel said the government could boost local rice output, which will lower consumer prices to reasonable levels.

"It is possible to lower the price, but we have to have buffer stocks and change some laws," he said.

He said this also means the government must craft effective strategies on importation.

"I'm not pro importation. I'm pro production. I import, but I produce more. I believe Filipinos can produce more. We can import when needed, we have to balance," he stressed.

Agriculture spokesperson Arnel de Mesa said local rice output might reach a record-high of 20 million metric tons this year, slightly higher than the 19.7 million metric tons last year. He estimated this volume would be good for consumption for another 90 days.

In terms of imports, he said the volume for this year could be lower than the 3.8 million metric tons last year. De Mesa said the country received 2.8 million metric tons as of the third quarter.

"With the President's directive to modernize, irrigate, use the right seeds, mechanize, and all that, we are getting ready to do our best, to try to make rice affordable for the people," he said.

How low?

Laurel, however, did not say how low he was hoping to bring rice prices.

He said he intends to implement the directive of the President to increase production in nearly all sectors of agriculture so the country would be less dependent on imports.

By modernizing agriculture, the DA chief said farmers would be able to fill crop demand, thereby increasing their income and lifting them out of poverty by the end of the President's term.

"By modernizing the agriculture sector, we could make it a more profitable venture and attract the younger generation and ensure the country's food security in the decades to come," he said.

Laurel said the President also told him to pay "special attention to price manipulation and smuggling." He said he intends to crack down on smugglers.      

With Jing Villamente