Smells like destabilization
Had the government not moved to arrest the runaway grain costs, the anxiety was expected to have a ripple effect on the market.
Text size
Share
Daily TribuneHad the government not moved to arrest the runaway grain costs, the anxiety was expected to have a ripple effect on the market.
Share
In the Philippines, where rice is indispensable, the grain's elevated prices and political instability are intrinsically linked. A typical pattern of political upheaval starts with high commodity prices.
When the cost of food spiked in 2008, riots erupted in Guinea, Mauritania, Mexico, Morocco, Senegal, Uzbekistan, and Yemen. In 2011, high food prices were cited as one of the causes of the Arab Spring.
Thus, the consistently high prices of rice and other basic commodities that seem to defy all solutions should be treated as a national security threat.
The price of rice is now the highest in 15 years, and it is manifesting in the financial markets, which, in the grand scheme of whoever is manipulating the situation, is the escalation of an emerging crisis.
The move of President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. placing a cap on rice prices was well-timed as it defused what might have been a social time bomb.
Market players said investors wary of the impact of high rice prices withdrew $13 million from Philippine bond exchange-traded funds in the past month.
This was in contrast to an inflow of nearly $9 million the previous month. Rice prices contributed largely to the surge in inflation in August.
Traders blame a rice cartel for taking advantage of India's rice export curbs by withholding supply and thus pushing market prices higher.
From under P40 per kilo, the cost of regular rice rocketed to more than P60 before the rice ceiling of P41 for ordinary and P45 for well-milled rice was imposed.
Had the government not moved to arrest the runaway grain costs, the anxiety was expected to have a ripple effect on the market.
Lately, foreign funds have been looking for other markets after the initial euphoria of the new Marcos Jr. administration. The Bloomberg index of bonds handed dollar-based investors a loss of 2.3 percent this quarter in the Philippines.
High inflation is expected to trigger the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to resume policy tightening after holding down rates since March.
The Philippine Stock Exchange Index has slid 4.9 percent in the three months to September, and losses are seen extending amid concerns over high interest rates.
The chain reaction extended to the peso, which is the worst-performing currency in Asia this quarter, with a loss of more than 2.7 percent.
The Philippines is the most vulnerable to rising rice prices within Southeast Asia as the commodity makes up 8.9 percent of the nation's basket of essential commodities.
Destabilization plotters are betting on wearing down international sentiment on the Marcos administration since the surge in rice prices could be a warning sign for major importers of the staple food.
"We're seeing a great deal of uncertainty," said Shirley Mustafa, an economist at the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization.
Tell-tale signs of a plot within the government included the subtle reference to the move to cap rice prices posted by a mid-level official of the Department of Finance who resigned.
Other nations are taking steps to stem rising costs. Malaysia has implemented a purchase limit and began checks on wholesalers and commercial millers after allegations that local grain was being sold as imported rice at a higher price.
Myanmar has also imposed a mandatory system to record volumes of stored rice to control domestic prices and deter speculation.
The backlash on global prices from the high cost of the grain results from the Philippines being the biggest rice importer after having just beaten China, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
The government needs to develop a long-term solution to stabilize rice prices since mandating a ceiling is proving costly in terms of subsidies to retailers and probably farmers who are up in arms over falling farmgate prices.
Political will is needed to bust the cartel and its opportunist sponsors.
