China Bank chief economist Domini Velasquez warned Saturday that core inflation is on an uptrend and could possibly range "between 7.7 percent to 7.9 percent in December before a slow decline in 2023."

She said she expects the November inflation rate to settle at 7.8 percent as vegetable prices soared, coupled with higher electricity rates in Metro Manila and nearby environs.

An uptick in the prices of liquefied petroleum gas "did not help either," Velasquez told Daily Tribune in a Viber message, adding that this, however, was tempered by recent rollbacks in fuel prices like those of gas and, diesel.

Echoing China Bank's latest estimates, Velasquez said that the core inflation rate in the country might have jumped to 6.1 percent in November from 5.9 percent in October. This means that secondary effects continued to drive higher prices overall, she explained.

"Prices of holiday goods are at risk of further peaking, and we hope the government can monitor and prevent unnecessary price increases this December," she added.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort, for his part, said the country's inflation could still peak by the fourth quarter of this year at around eight percent.

Gradual easing

"There is a chance that year-on-year inflation could have already topped out in Q4 2022 and could start to ease gradually thereafter and even ease year-on-year significantly," Ricafort said via Viber.

He added the damage caused by tropical storm "Paeng" in November 2022 could have led to some pick up in food and agricultural prices and overall inflation, especially in hard-hit areas.

He also pointed at the seasonal increase in demand and the consequent increases in the prices of Christmas holiday-related products toward November and December.

According to Ricafort, recent inflation figures are mainly due to supply-side factors. "So any local policy rate hike may not necessarily be effective in addressing these supply-side inflationary pressures, largely due to external factors," Ricafort said.

ING Bank Philippines senior economist Nicholas Mapa, who penciled in an 8.2 percent inflation rate for November, said the extensive crop damage from two storms forced headline inflation higher.

"This could be offset by lower transport costs after fuel prices were lowered throughout the month," he told Daily Tribune in an email.

Other private-sector economists saw the country's inflation rate running hotter for November.

Upward pressure

A Daily Tribune poll of economists showed a forecast range of 7.5 to 8.2 percent. For its part, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas predicted that November inflation might have fallen between the 7.4 percent and 8.2 percent range.

UnionBank chief economist Ruben Carlo Asuncion expected the November inflation print to remain elevated at 7.5 percent. Asuncion said the inflation rate remained high due to upward pressure from food prices due to recent weather disturbances, and higher electricity and cooking costs.

"Nevertheless, easing prices of fuel and other basic commodities may provide downward price pressures," Asuncion said. "Also, strengthening the (Philippine peso) may provide respite from imported inflation," he added.