A possible return of El Niño by mid-2026 is prompting the United Nations to urge countries like the Philippines to act early and strengthen climate resilience before severe impacts emerge.
In a recent report, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) warned that uncertainty over the strength of the weather phenomenon should not delay preparation efforts, especially in countries historically vulnerable to extreme El Niño conditions.
The report identified the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Timor-Leste among the countries in Asia-Pacific that have previously suffered from strong El Niño episodes marked by drought, food shortages and disease outbreaks.
“El Niño is likely to return by mid-2026 and could be strong. According to the World Meteorological Organization, it could emerge as early as May-July 2026, with several national hydrometeorological agencies in Asia and the Pacific already issuing alerts,” the report said.
ESCAP noted that climate change is intensifying the risks associated with El Niño as rising global temperatures worsen the effects of prolonged dry conditions and heat.
“Past events have triggered major humanitarian crises, driving drought, food insecurity and public health emergencies across Asia and the Pacific,” the article stated.
The report recalled that major El Niño events between 1971 and 1973, 1982 and 1983, and 1997 and 1998 caused widespread droughts, forest fires and outbreaks of diseases such as dengue across South and Southeast Asia.
According to the study, communities that rely heavily on subsistence farming and already face poverty, malnutrition and food insecurity remain the most vulnerable to climate-related shocks.
ESCAP also pointed to the 2015-2016 El Niño, considered the strongest this century, which exposed more than 200 million people in Southeast Asia to severe drought conditions after over 70 percent of the region’s land area experienced drought at its peak.
“The implication is clear: waiting for certainty can increase exposure to avoidable losses. Historical evidence and current signals already provide a sufficient basis for early, no-regret action,” the report said.
The UN body recommended that governments convert climate forecasts into concrete local action, invest early in resilience programs and improve coordination among sectors such as agriculture, water, energy and public health.
It also encouraged the use of satellite-based monitoring and near real-time data analytics to identify areas likely to experience water shortages, crop failures and heightened community risks.
The report added that early financing for social protection, farmer assistance and water management programs could help reduce economic losses and protect long-term development gains.