Real reckoning comes later

The political reality in which Vice President Sara Duterte continues to post significantly higher trust and approval ratings than President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. could have profound consequences after the impeachment court delivers its verdict.

The numbers presented at the trial may ultimately matter less than the public’s perception of them. The prevailing narrative is that the Palace has been working behind the scenes to ensure the court’s vote ends in a conviction.

Whether that perception is justified or not, it is part of the political reality the senator-judges must confront.

The public opinion numbers, however, are difficult to ignore. A Social Weather Stations survey conducted from 21 to 27 September found that 56 percent of Filipinos had “much trust” in Duterte, compared to 36 percent for Marcos.

Pulse Asia, meanwhile, found that 54 percent approved of Duterte’s performance, compared with 30 percent for Marcos, while 49 percent disapproved.

The Palace is presumably aware of this political backdrop, which may help explain why the prosecution has accelerated its case.

On 13 October, the 39th day of the impeachment trial, the House prosecutors withdrew the articles on confidential funds, bribery and grave threats, leaving Article II, which concerns unexplained wealth and undisclosed assets.

Presiding Officer Senator Francis Escudero granted the prosecution’s request after it referred to the 2012 trial of Chief Justice Renato Corona.

The defense, however, countered that the Corona case was not the same since the articles then were dropped before any evidence was heard, while in the instant case the senator-judges had already heard the accusations against their client.

The court set 9 November for the defense to begin its presentation of evidence.

Whether the dropping of articles was fair or not is for the lawyers to argue, but what matters to the public is how it looks — and to many, it seemed this was done to shorten the trial. A verdict the people may see as hurried will not be easily accepted, even if the law allows it.

The calendar adds to the pressure. The Philippines hosts the ASEAN summit next month, and Mr. Marcos has declared 16 to 18 November special non-working days in Metro Manila.

Malacañang has confirmed that US President Donald Trump will attend, and the White House said he will arrive on 16 November.

A government that wants quiet streets and positive headlines while foreign leaders are in town has good reason to want the trial out of the way. Congress will then go on its Christmas break in mid-December, which should alter the public mood.

The lesson is not that a trial will cause an uprising. It is that a government which rushes a trial to a verdict the people will not believe will tend to pay for it later, and usually in the first months of the new year.

For many of Duterte’s supporters, the picture is stark: a daughter on trial while her father sits in a foreign detention cell.

A conviction could reinforce the narrative that Sara is being punished rather than judged. Even some who do not support her could be persuaded to change their mind if the proceedings are seen as lopsided.

A senator who votes against the backdrop of a trial perceived as unfair and a hostile public will have to live with that decision.

The reckoning may come later, when the senators themselves will be seeking another vote — from the electorate.