Motorists could face another sharp increase in pump prices next week, with diesel seen rising by as much as P5 per liter as renewed tensions in the Middle East and tightening global fuel supplies push oil prices higher.

Based on industry estimates using Monday-to-Thursday data, diesel prices could increase by P4.50 to P5 per liter, while gasoline could climb by P4 to P4.50 per liter.

If the forecast holds, prevailing Metro Manila gasoline prices could climb to about P67.80 to P101.87 per liter, depending on the fuel grade and station. Diesel could rise to around P79.60 to P99.29 per liter.

Jetti Petroleum Inc. president Leo Bellas attributed the projected increases partly to renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran, which have revived concerns over energy flows from the Middle East.

“The United States strike on Larak, Iran’s missile response against US interests in the Middle East, and US President Trump’s renewed threats against Kharg Island have created renewed risk of escalation in the region after more than a month of relative calm in the region,” Bellas said on Friday. 

Diesel is facing additional upward pressure from tightening global inventories amid refinery disruptions, particularly in the Middle East and Russia.

Bellas said continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz have compounded supply concerns and pushed prices higher.

Low inventories, resilient demand and continued uncertainty over supply security are likewise supporting gasoline prices.

Bellas said Asian gasoline supply could also tighten as China stockpiles fuel ahead of the Golden Week holidays.

The projected increases would come immediately after oil companies slashed diesel prices by as much as P3.90 per liter and gasoline by up to P0.40 per liter this week.