Illicit cigarette and e-vape trade across Southeast Asia is expanding faster than governments can respond, costing billions in lost revenues and strengthening criminal networks

Atty. Mario T. Zinampan, JTI director for Fiscal and Regulatory Affairs, made the remarks during the Economic Journalists Association of the Philippines’ (EJAP) Economic Forum 2026 at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

“Illicit trade is growing faster than our collective response, draining revenues and strengthening criminal networks across the region,” Zinampan said.

He said illicit cigarettes and e-vapes sold across ASEAN reached an estimated 145 billion sticks last year and could climb to 170 billion by 2028. The share of illicit products is also projected to rise from 23.6 percent to 27.8 percent of total volumes.

ASEAN governments lost an estimated $13.1 billion, or about P739 billion, in revenues over two years due to illicit trade. The Philippines and Malaysia each accounted for $2.5 billion in losses.

Zinampan said the Philippines alone lost P141 billion in government revenues during the period, while illicit operators gained an estimated P127 billion.

He added that about 86 percent of e-vapes sold in the Philippines are illicit, with the same routes used for illicit tobacco also being exploited for other transnational crimes.

“The Philippines has shown that strong anti-diversion measures can work. The next step is for ASEAN to harmonize laws, regulations, and intelligence sharing,” Zinampan said.

He urged ASEAN members to align export controls and adopt the destination principle across the region, requiring exporters to comply with the legal and regulatory requirements of destination markets.

Zinampan said harmonized rules would help close regulatory gaps that criminal networks exploit and strengthen enforcement across borders.

“One threat, one region, one response,” he said.