THE ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office said it is revising upward to 4.1 percent its ASEAN+3 growth forecast in 2026, and maintained at 4 percent in 2027 as robust AI (artificial intelligence)-driven demand offsets headwinds from the Middle East conflict. AMRO head and lead economist Allen Ng said ASEAN+3 currently accounts for about half of the world’s AI-related trade.
PHOTOGRAPH courtesy of Metrobank Wealth Insights
Strong demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related products and resilient domestic spending have prompted economists to raise the 2026 growth outlook for ASEAN+3 (10 ASEAN member countries linked with China, Japan, and South Korea) economies despite continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) now expects the regional bloc to expand by 4.1 percent this year, slightly higher than its 4.0 percent forecast issued in June, as technology exports and consumer demand offset the impact of higher energy costs and global uncertainty. Growth is projected to ease slightly to 4.0 percent in 2027.
Key economic driver
AMRO said the region’s role in global AI supply chains, particularly in semiconductors and electronics, has become a key driver of economic activity.
“ASEAN+3 has remained resilient, supported by firm domestic demand and its central role in global AI supply chains. The impact of the Middle East conflict has also been less severe than initially expected, although elevated energy and input costs continue to pose risks to inflation and industrial activity,” said AMRO chief economist Dong He.
The report showed ASEAN+3 exports jumped nearly 20 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, with AI-related products accounting for almost two-thirds of the increase.
Tourism also continued to support growth, as visitor arrivals across the region rose 7.5 percent from a year earlier, with Chinese travelers contributing more than one-third of the increase.
Vietnam fastest growth in the ASEAN
Among ASEAN members, Vietnam is expected to post the fastest economic growth this year at 7.5 percent, followed by Indonesia (5.0 percent), Malaysia (4.9 percent), Singapore (4.8 percent), Lao PDR (4.6 percent), Cambodia (4.2 percent) and the Philippines (4.1 percent). Myanmar (2.5 percent), Thailand (2.4 percent) and Brunei (1.9 percent) round out the regional forecasts.
For the Plus-3 economies, China is projected to grow by 4.5 percent, followed by Hong Kong at 3.4 percent, South Korea at 3.1 percent, and Japan at 0.6 percent.
Regional inflation forecast lowered
AMRO also lowered its regional inflation forecast to 1.6 percent for 2026, citing expectations of softer global commodity prices. While inflation has remained generally contained, the report warned that food prices could accelerate as higher production costs and adverse weather conditions affect agricultural output.
