A month after they agreed on a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the conflict that began in February, the two sides have intensified the fighting with strikes on targets around the region.
Iran on Friday accused US forces of hitting civilian infrastructure, including an airport, a railway station, and two bridges, with state media reporting at least eight dead and 20 injured in the overnight attacks.
Industry estimates based on the first four trading days of the week showed diesel prices may increase by P9.50 to P10.50 per liter, while gasoline prices could climb by P3.50 to P4.50 per liter beginning next Tuesday.
Geopolitical risks swing up
Leo Bellas, president of Jetti Petroleum Inc., said oil prices climbed as geopolitical risks resurfaced following renewed hostilities between Iran and the United States.
“World oil prices are mainly supported by an elevated geopolitical risk premium, which was rebuilt after the Iranian attacks on commercial ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz outside the Iranian-approved route, and the retaliatory strikes by the US on Iranian military assets,” Bellas said.
“Worries of supply disruption, tightening product balances as vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz declined sharply, and the US naval blockade of ships to and from Iranian ports have pushed prices higher,” he added.
Bellas said diesel prices have risen more sharply as seasonal demand strengthens while supplies tighten, a situation compounded by renewed tensions in the Middle East and lower Russian diesel exports due to damage to energy infrastructure from Ukrainian drone attacks.
For gasoline, he said the renewed US-Iran confrontation and threats surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have heightened concerns about crude and refined fuel supplies during the peak demand season, further supporting prices.
The projected adjustments would follow this week’s hikes of P1 per liter for gasoline and P4.60 to P4.62 per liter for diesel, extending the recent run-up in domestic fuel prices.
If realized, diesel prices in Metro Manila could range from P80.12 to P95.11 per liter, up from this week’s P70.62 to P84.61 per liter. Diesel Plus could also breach the P100-per-liter mark, with prices projected at P87.02 to P101.27 per liter.
Gasoline prices are likewise expected to climb, with RON 91 projected at P71.20 to P93.21 per liter, RON 95 at P72.50 to P100.13 per liter, and premium RON 97/100 at P73.25 to P100.60 per liter.
