Near-record global food inventories could help shield consumers from supply disruptions as a potentially powerful El Nino threatens agricultural production across key growing regions.

The weather phenomenon, which is expected to intensify in the coming months, has historically triggered droughts, floods and crop losses worldwide. 

However, strong harvests over the past several years have left major producers with ample reserves of wheat, rice, corn and soybeans.

Silver lining

“There is a bit of silver lining as far as global stocks and recent harvests of rice and other cereals is concerned,” said United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization economist Shirley Mustafa. She added that existing inventories are likely to cushion part of the impact from El Nino.

Global wheat stocks are projected to reach their highest level in five years, while world rice reserves have climbed to a record high. India, which accounts for about 40 percent of global rice exports, is holding stocks far above government targets.

“India imposed curbs on rice exports during previous El Niño years when production came under pressure,” said a New Delhi-based grain dealer.

“But with record wheat and rice inventories this year, the government is unlikely to restrict rice exports.”

Improving irrigation systems

Indonesia and Thailand have also built up supplies and strengthened preparations, including improving irrigation systems and maintaining high reservoir levels to support crop production during dry conditions,” he added.