Fuel retailers are expected to implement a mixed price adjustment next week, with diesel likely headed for a hefty rollback while gasoline prices may post another increase.

Based on the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) and foreign exchange averages from Monday to Thursday, diesel prices could decline by P3.50 to P4 per liter, while gasoline may rise by P0.50 to P1 per liter.

According to market monitoring, the projected diesel rollback reflects weakening middle distillate prices as supply conditions improved.

“Diesel and other middle distillate prices declined due to easing in prompt tightness as northeast Asian producers have managed to secure alternative crude supplies,” Jetti Petroleum, Inc. President Leo Bella said on Friday.

Gasoline prices, meanwhile, continue to draw support from tightening supply fundamentals.

“Gasoline prices remained supported due to relatively low inventories globally,” he said, adding that “Asian gasoline balances are expected to tighten further as stocks continue to fall amid the curtailment in supply while demand remains elevated.”

Despite the bearish outlook for diesel, oil markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East. 

Crude prices have swung sharply in recent sessions amid escalating tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the United States, stoking fears of supply disruptions through key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.

“The rapidly shifting geopolitical developments will continue to drive fluctuations in near-term sentiments and world oil prices,” Bellas noted.

If the projected adjustments take effect, diesel prices could ease to around P66.91 to P88.09 per liter nationwide, while premium diesel products may retail at approximately P91.01 to P91.51 per liter.

Gasoline prices, meanwhile, could increase further, with RON 97/100 selling between P75.02 and P106.04 per liter, RON 95 between P67.44 and P98.28 per liter, and RON 91 between P66.44 and P96.35 per liter, depending on the station and location.