THE disruption caused by the Middle East conflict, says AMRO, is the most consequential uncertainty, even as it also changed its revised 2027 Philippine growth projections, lowering GDP growth from nearly 6 percent down to 5.5 percent.
PHOTOGRAPH courtesy of Ayala Land
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has sharply revised its 2026 economic growth and inflation forecasts for the Philippines, marking the most significant revisions in the region and joining a growing list of international institutions downgrading the country’s outlook amid the global energy shock.
In its June Interim Update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO), AMRO cut its Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 4.1 percent from 5.3 percent previously, while raising its inflation projection to 6.0 percent from 3.9 percent.
ASEAN growth downgraded
“Growth revisions are uneven across the region, with forecasts upgraded for most Plus-3 economies on the back of the robust AI-driven technology cycle, while ASEAN growth has been downgraded in some economies, including the Philippines and Vietnam, where stronger inflation passthrough is expected to weigh on domestic demand,” the report said.
The revisions to AMRO’s 2026 Philippine forecasts are the largest in the ASEAN+3 region, underscoring the country’s vulnerability to the global energy shortage.
AMRO findings consistent with BMI’s
The findings are consistent with earlier assessments by global risk analytics firm BMI, which recently lowered its Philippine GDP growth forecast to 3.9 percent, a downgrade of about 1.3 percentage points, marking BMI’s largest downward revision for any economy outside the Middle East.
The Philippine economy grew by just 2.8 percent in the first quarter, extending a three quarter slowdown.
Government officials largely attributed the weak first quarter numbers to the broader effects of the national energy emergency, with the country importing a majority of its fuel.
