Motorists could see diesel prices fall by nearly P9 per liter next week as global oil and fuel markets continue to retreat from recent highs, with easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East prompting traders to unwind risk premiums that had lifted prices in recent weeks.

Industry estimates, based on the full week of Mean of Platts Singapore trading and foreign exchange movements, indicate that diesel prices could decline by P7.50 to P8.50 per liter, while gasoline prices may decrease by P4 to P5 per liter.

"Crude and refined fuel products prices are pressured by improving sentiments that the US and Iran are moving closer towards a peace deal and growing optimism that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened soon," an industry source said Saturday.

Diesel seen registering bigger rollback

Diesel is expected to register the bigger rollback as supply tightness in the middle-distillates market continues to ease.

"Supply tightness in the diesel market is seen easing down, weighing on the price benchmark, as recent market developments point to some improvement in supply conditions, with refiners increasingly able to secure alternative crude supplies," the source said.

Gasoline prices are likewise seen moving lower despite robust seasonal demand and declining inventories.

Asian gasoline prices seen to trade in a tight range

"Asian gasoline prices are seen to trade in a tight range but could favor the downside following recent developments in the Middle East. Supply and demand balances, however, remain precarious as global gasoline markets remain tight with the onset of the summer season while inventories continue to decline," the source added.

Market sentiment has also been supported by reports that Washington and Tehran have agreed to extend a ceasefire and allow maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, easing fears of prolonged disruptions to global energy supplies.

Should the projected rollback materialize, prevailing pump prices in Metro Manila could fall to between P65.66 and P87.19 per liter for diesel, while Diesel Plus may range from P75.66 to P91.06 per liter.

Regular gasoline (RON91) could sell for between P68 and P95.81 per liter, while premium gasoline (RON95) may range from P68.97 to P97.89 per liter.

Higher-octane gasoline grades (RON97/100), meanwhile, could retail for between P75.98 and P105.70 per liter.

While the national energy emergency remains in effect, the Department of Energy will determine the final adjustments based on prevailing market conditions before announcing the official price movements on Monday for implementation the following day.