A lack of accountability in dealing with corrupt politicians may precipitate further political unrest and worsen the country’s already grim economic outlook, according to Fitch Solutions unit BMI.

In a Friday commentary, BMI said that while the Middle East conflict remains the primary external risk facing the Philippines, failure to hold corrupt officials accountable threatens to undermine stability through growing public discontent.

Political risk elevated in the Philippines

“The appearance of impropriety or perceived lack of accountability is likely to undermine the credibility of the corruption probe, which we think will keep political risk elevated in the Philippines,” BMI said, adding that “a potential trigger for renewed unrest is the perception that senior figures remain insulated from accountability.”

BMI’s commentary follows a week of intensifying political developments. On Monday, Vicente “Tito” Sotto was ousted as Senate President in favor of Alan Peter Cayetano, who previously served as House Speaker under former President Rodrigo Duterte.

The timing of Cayetano’s ascent to the Senate presidency drew scrutiny, with Vice President Sara Duterte’s second impeachment proceedings headed to the Upper House and Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa reportedly facing the possible service of an International Criminal Court warrant tied to alleged crimes against humanity committed during his tenure as Philippine National Police chief under the elder Duterte, who is currently detained in The Hague awaiting trial on similar charges.

Dramatic return to the Senate

Following a dramatic return to the Senate on Tuesday, tensions escalated when gunshots were reportedly fired inside Senate premises on Wednesday evening, prompting a lockdown shortly after the Articles of Impeachment against Duterte were transmitted to the chamber past 7:30 in the evening.

BMI noted that senators Francis “Chiz” Escudero, Joel Villanueva and Jinggoy Estrada — all allegedly linked to the ongoing flood control scandal for further investigation — voted in favor of Cayetano, adding that his leadership may intensify already elevated political frictions.

“As a key ally of Sara, [Cayetano’s] accession significantly reduces the already narrow path to conviction. Indeed, Duterte allies can now shape the pace and narrative of the trial,” BMI said.

“If the Senate overreaches by either stonewalling proceedings or dispensing with a proper trial, this will likely prove divisive given mounting clamor for a proper trial, raising political risks in the Philippines,” it stressed.

Rule of Law indicator in Political Risk Index deteriorating

BMI also said the Philippines’ Rule of Law Indicator under its Political Risk Index has been steadily deteriorating, highlighting increasing risks of weakened accountability.

The commentary echoed earlier warnings from political economists that domestic political tensions could further complicate an already fragile economic environment amid the global energy crisis.