IEA warns global oil supply could drop by 3.9M bpd

International Energy Agency warned on Wednesday that global oil supply could decline by 3.9 million barrels per day because of the ongoing conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, assuming crude oil shipments gradually resume by June.

In its latest oil market report released on 13 May, the IEA said disruptions in the strategic waterway have already resulted in supply losses of 12.8 million barrels per day since February.

The agency also projected that global oil supply would fall 1.78 million barrels per day below projected demand, reversing an earlier forecast that showed supply exceeding demand by 0.41 million barrels per day.

According to the IEA, global inventory buffers are rapidly shrinking as countries dependent on Middle Eastern oil imports continue to face what it described as “unprecedented disruptions.”

The agency warned that the situation could “herald future spikes ahead” as supply pressures intensify.

“More than 10 weeks after the war in the Middle East began, mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace,” the IEA said in its report.

The agency added that it has already released around 164 million barrels into the global market since March from emergency oil reserves held by member countries, with plans to supply up to 400 million barrels if necessary.

Roland Lescure, representing one of the IEA’s 32 member-states, said there are currently no plans to release additional emergency oil stocks.