A political analyst said Vice President Sara Duterte is unlikely to be convicted by the Senate despite her impeachment by the House of Representatives, citing the upper chamber’s current political composition and recent leadership change.

Speaking on DAILY TRIBUNE’s Usapang OFW program, lawyer Edward Chico said the Senate is constitutionally bound to convene as an impeachment court, warning that refusing to do so could trigger legal consequences.

But Chico believes the numbers in the Senate strongly favor Duterte’s acquittal. “Honestly, right now, if you go by the numbers, it would be difficult to convict the Vice President,” he said.

He warned the trial may turn into a “zarzuela.”

The House impeached Duterte over allegations of unexplained wealth, misuse of public funds, bribery, and grave threats against top government officials.

Chico, a columnist of this paper, said the impeachment trial would ultimately be driven more by politics than evidence.

He cited alleged but unverified information supposedly recovered from the device of former Department of Public Works and Highways engineer Brice Hernandez involving senators allegedly linked to the flood control controversy.

Leverage

According to Chico, such information could potentially be used as leverage to protect Duterte from conviction and preserve her eligibility to run for president in 2028.

Despite this, Chico said the outright dismissal of the impeachment case is unlikely because of the extensive hearings and proceedings conducted by the House.

Instead, he said, the battle would likely center on the admissibility and appreciation of the evidence during the Senate trial.

“What the people don’t understand is that even the Supreme Court has already recognized this, that is just how an impeachment goes,” Chico said.

“Like I said, this is sui generis, it’s a class by itself, nothing compares to this,” he added.

Chico said impeachment trials are inherently political proceedings in which voting blocs often become apparent even before the trial formally begins.

No disqualification

“This is the only type of case where even before the start you already know the result based on who you see they might vote for,” he said.

“And you know they will court each other, and you know they will endeavor to find a way to give this a semblance of legitimacy, but at the end of the day this is a numbers game,” he said.

Chico floated the possibility that even if the senators find Duterte guilty, they may choose to follow the American practice and only remove her from office without permanently disqualifying her from seeking another public office.

Under Article XI, Section 3 of the Constitution, impeachment penalties are limited to removal from office and disqualification from holding public office, although the provision does not explicitly state whether both penalties must automatically be applied together.