Analysts said the move could weaken OPEC, dominated by rival Saudi Arabia, and heighten oil market volatility. Gulf shipments are already constrained by Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of the world’s oil.
A source close to the UAE energy ministry told AFP that the country did not want to be constrained by quotas once shipping normalizes. Tensions with Saudi Arabia, worsened by rival forces in Yemen, have also strained ties.
Before the war, the UAE was OPEC+’s fourth-largest producer. Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy said the withdrawal allows the UAE to raise production, "raising broader questions about the sustainability of Saudi Arabia's role as the market's central stabiliser -- and pointing to a potentially more volatile oil market."
Jamie Ingram of the Middle East Economic Survey noted OPEC is losing 13% of its production capacity with the UAE’s departure, citing the International Energy Agency.