Countdown: A wider war
Washington merely shifted from strikes to economic coercion, betting that financial strain might succeed where force had not. It wasn’t peace, but war by other means.
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Daily TribuneWashington merely shifted from strikes to economic coercion, betting that financial strain might succeed where force had not. It wasn’t peace, but war by other means.
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A ceasefire is meant to stop a war, but the two-week pause between the United States and Iran in the Middle East did something else; it merely reorganized the state of affairs in the troubled region.
On 8 April, Washington and Tehran agreed, under Pakistani mediation, to halt hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and talk toward something more lasting. What followed was a tightening cycle of pressure, miscalculation, and muscle-flexing that exposed just how little common ground existed between the two sides.
The conflict has been as much about geography as firepower. The Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes, has become both battlefield and bargaining chip. Control of that narrow waterway is not a peripheral concern but a central one.
The fragile ceasefire about to end started with an unresolved contradiction.
Washington wanted free passage and a stop to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Tehran wanted sanctions relief and leverage over the same waters. Both agreed to pause while holding diametrically opposed positions that made any durable agreement unworkable from the start.
It didn’t take long to unravel.
Talks in Islamabad collapsed within days. The United States imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports; Iran closed Hormuz. Ships turned back, insurance costs rose and markets wavered. The ceasefire was a pressure cooker set to simmer.
Washington merely shifted from strikes to economic coercion, betting that financial strain might succeed where force had not. It wasn’t peace, but war by other means.
Tehran, on the other hand, saw no distinction. It warned that interference near Hormuz would be treated as escalation. Warning shots were fired. Commercial vessels hesitated, rerouted and waited. The ceasefire had become a test of limits rather than a foundation for talks.
Then, on 19 April, US forces fired on and seized the Iranian cargo vessel Touska, saying it ignored repeated warnings not to breach the blockade. Tehran called it piracy and vowed retaliation.
Okay, the ceasefire still existed on paper, but in practice, it was all over.
Washington appeared to believe pressure short of open conflict remained acceptable. Tehran saw interference with its shipping as crossing a red line. That gap is where wars expand. Conflicts like this tend not to fade. They widen — drawing in more actors, more stakes and more miscalculation.
Without a doubt, even the limited instability in Hormuz has shaken markets. A prolonged disruption would raise global oil prices again just as Filipinos are now seeing rollbacks at the pumps. Energy, in this context, is leverage and leverage invites escalation.
Tehran has signaled that talks are pointless under current conditions. Washington has answered with warnings that leave little room for retreat. The diplomatic track is not stalled; it is closing.
And then there is Israel. Never central to the ceasefire narrative, but always present. For Israel, Iran’s nuclear trajectory is not negotiable. It has acted before and is unlikely to wait indefinitely. A collapsing diplomatic track does not deter preemption — it justifies it.
A wider war, if it comes, will not begin with a declaration. It will unfold in increments — a strike, a response and more US naval forces crowding the Gulf. Iran’s asymmetric capabilities are built for exactly this kind of fight. Add Israel’s reach and intent, and the map fills quickly with flashpoints.
The ceasefire was meant to buy time for a sustainable peace. Instead, it revealed how little time there is. The underlying issues — control of a critical waterway, regional power, nuclear ambition — do not yield to pauses.
