The country’s leadership must take advantage of the ceasefire declared between the US and Israel against Iran—but with caution—a former government and security official said Saturday.

Rafael Alunan III, former secretary of the Department of the Interior and Local Government during the time of the late President Fidel Ramos, said in a radio interview that the Middle East conflict has put over 2 million Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) in the region at risk.

“Should the Iran (Middle East) war take a turn for the worse in the days ahead and turn into a war of attrition—thus repeating America’s misadventures in the Middle East—I foresee that we will suffer from two headaches: (1) evacuating our OFWs to safer ground and finding them new employment hosts abroad; and (2) repatriating them to the Philippines, where jobs are scarce unless the government pulls itself together, stops corruption cold turkey, and miraculously improves the cost and ease of doing business to create more jobs through business expansions,” Alunan said.

Fragile ceasefire

He added that the ceasefire agreement being pursued is “fragile and may not hold,” as both sides have accused each other of breaching their understanding.

“My view on ceasefires is that sincerity is always at a deficit. It’s used mainly to catch one’s breath, evaluate lessons learned, rearm, regroup, and reposition. In short, ceasefires, from personal experience in the DILG facing secessionists and insurgents, are usually broken due to bad faith. From observations of war-torn areas abroad, the pattern of behavior is more or less the same,” Alunan emphasized.

“I also said that the ceasefire won’t hold because both sides have unacceptable demands. Iran will not stop its nuclear program, which it says is for peaceful purposes. The US and Israel think otherwise and are stopping it at all costs,” he added.

Trump’s ego-centric leadership

Alunan said US President Donald Trump “unilaterally jumped into that war without any allied backing nor popular support at home.”

“That’s why his ego-centric leadership and disastrous handling of the Iran war, exacerbated by Hegseth’s sophomoric power-tripping, are undermining their national interests and their own military, which is increasingly showing signs of passive resistance and controlled anger,” he said.

“Because of his fumbling, dictatorial style, the lack of clear-cut goals and exit plan, and TACO tactics, the world is suffering not only from skyrocketing fuel prices but also from supply chain disruptions. That is threatening global food, health, and energy security. Did he think of mitigating that before attacking? Didn’t he think Iran, backed by Russia, China, and North Korea, would see through his predictable bluffs and bluster? I don’t think so. I think he’s incapable of that,” Alunan added.

“Did Trump or Hegseth care? Did he think of the impact, especially on the world’s poor, including ours at home? He hasn’t assured us access to emergency stockpiles. Why? Because he didn’t think of it, despite the EDCA (Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement) facilities in our military bases,” he said.

Past and present admin failure

For the former DILG chief, past and present administrations, due to their self-consumed focus on power and patronage politics to entrench and enrich themselves, have “totally neglected their stewardship duties and nation-building responsibilities.”

“That left the country vulnerable and exposed to all kinds of risks to our human and ecological security. They could have foreseen, for example, that the long-running volatility in the Middle East would someday result in a catastrophic geoeconomic crisis. They failed to factor in geopolitical risk in their national resilience and contingency plans,” Alunan said.

He added that such negligence prevented proactive measures to expand indigenous energy sources—such as hydro, geothermal, solar, and wind—accelerate the inclusion of modular nuclear plants, and expand refining and storage capacities.

“Had the government and the private sector worked long ago as solid partners, the risks would have been effectively mitigated today. Reactive patchwork and whistling in the dark just don’t cut it. Preparing after the fact just doesn’t work,” he stressed.

No to oil exploration with China

Alunan also rejected any oil exploration agreement with China.

“Why favor a country that has been serially threatening us, warning us, and harming us while claiming ownership of our EEZ, contravening international law—specifically UNCLOS—and the arbitral ruling that trashed their fictitious and arbitrary nine-dash line (which keeps changing for political reasons)?” he said.

He added that past administrations should have been forward-looking and worked with dependable partners from Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore.

“We’re in the dark. The general public is left out of the dialogue, except when they need an audience to announce a fait accompli. That’s because of regulatory capture by big oligarchic interests here and abroad that keep our energy policy skewed toward oil and coal,” Alunan said.

“Moreover, we allow the costs of non-fossil sources to rise when oil prices increase. The ordinary citizen is trapped by profiteers from all angles,” he added.