Motorists may finally catch a break next week as fuel prices are poised for a rollback, though volatility in global markets continues to cloud the outlook.

Industry estimates based on Mean of Platts Singapore trading data and foreign exchange averages point to a steep P8.80 to P10.80 per liter cut in diesel prices. Gasoline prices, on the other hand, could dip by as much as P1.50 per liter, or remain unchanged at worst.

If the projections hold, gasoline prices — currently at P86 to P119 per liter — could ease to P84.50 to P119. Diesel, meanwhile, may fall more sharply from P127 to P172 per liter to around P116.20 to P163.20 per liter.

Welcome breather

The anticipated rollback would offer a welcome breather for consumers and transport operators, particularly after weeks of elevated pump prices. A deeper cut in diesel, in particular, could help temper transport costs and provide some relief from broader price pressures.

Still, industry players caution that the relief may prove short-lived as geopolitical risks continue to drive price swings. “Price swings can be expected, depending on the developments in the Middle East,” said Leo Bellas, president of Jetti Petroleum Inc.

“Prices may gradually dip should there be clearer direction on the ceasefire deal and flows in the Strait of Hormuz. On the other hand, prices can rebound if the supply crisis continues.”

Iranian officials are in Pakistan for crucial talks with the United States. President Donald Trump warns of renewed strikes if no deal is reached, with hopes for a wider truce tied to a ceasefire involving Hezbollah, even as tensions and reduced shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continue to push oil prices higher.