U.S. job growth beats forecasts, analysts urge caution

The U.S. economy added stronger-than-expected jobs in March, data showed Friday, offering a boost to Donald Trump but drawing caution from analysts.

The Labor Department reported 178,000 jobs added, rebounding from a loss of 133,000 in February, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%. The gains exceeded expectations of 59,000.

The data was stronger than forecast, "but vastly overstates the sustainable pace of job growth," said Oxford Economics economist Nancy Vanden Houten, citing temporary factors including strikes, seasonal effects and weather.

Trump praised the report, saying, "My Economic Policies have created an enormously powerful engine of Economic Growth, and nothing can slow it down."

White House spokesperson Kush Desai said that once the "short-term disruptions" of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran are over, "America's economic resurgence is set to only accelerate."

Job gains were led by health care, which added 76,000 positions, and construction, which grew by 26,000. Federal employment continued to decline, down 11.8% since October 2024.

Analysts warned of rising risks as the Middle East conflict drives up energy prices and pressures supply chains. "As the labor market softens due to the fallout from the war, we expect the unemployment rate to edge up," Houten said.

Nationwide economist Kathy Bostjancic said the labor market remains in "good standing," while EY-Parthenon’s Lydia Boussour noted it is "holding up" but increasingly fragile in a "low-hire, low-fire" environment.

Federal Reserve officials signaled a cautious approach to interest rates amid uncertainty. "We are getting mixed signals, with some key indicators showing signs of steadying while others are suggesting a weakening labor market," said New York Fed President John Williams.