History does not repeat itself, but it has a habit of echoing during inconvenient times. Today, that comes in the form of an oil crisis, triggered by the ongoing Iran war, now rippling across global supply chains.

For the Philippines, an import-dependent economy when it comes to fuel, the consequences are immediate and unforgiving. Pump prices rise in jolts, and transportation costs have been increasing. With food prices inching upward, the inflationary spiral begins. What starts at the gas station ends at the dinner table for the Filipino families, with less food on the plate.

Ultimately, this is not merely an energy issue, rather, this is an economic stress test. To recall, in 2020, the Covid pandemic brought the economy to its knees, during which the government responded with extraordinary fiscal and regulatory measures to cushion the blow. That crisis arrived two years before a presidential election, and the electorate remembered.

Today’s oil crisis arrives at a similar juncture, also two years before 2028. For President Bongbong Marcos, this is more than an economic challenge — it is a defining test of leadership. How this administration manages rising fuel prices, stabilizes supply, and protects vulnerable sectors may shape public sentiment heading into election year.

What complicates matters is the political noise. Allies are advancing an impeachment complaint against the Vice President, a declared contender for 2028. At a moment that demands focus, this risks conveying misplaced priorities.

On the regulatory front, the administration now stands on firmer legal ground. The excise tax framework under the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion Law provides a built-in mechanism for suspension when global oil prices breach statutory thresholds. Recent policy direction signals openness to invoking this suspension, or at the very least tempering collections, to immediately ease pump prices. The trade-off is fiscal, but relief is no longer theoretical.

Complementing this is the declaration of a State of National Emergency, grounded on constitutional emergency powers, a decision that has reached international media. This enables the President to direct fuel logistics, prioritize allocation, compel industry participation, and impose price controls when public interest so requires. These powers are not without limits, and demand proportionality, transparency and time-bound use, lest intervention distort the very market it seeks to stabilize.

Tycoons of the country’s largest conglomerates have spoken up on what has to be done, reassuring the public that gas supplies are enough to last until mid-year. The private sector has stepped in, but it cannot substitute for coherent policy from the government.

Crises reveal both leadership and systems. This oil shock will pass, but its imprint will remain. Filipinos must brace for difficult months ahead and must remain steady. As for the Administration, it should not take this situation lightly with no end in sight for the intensifying Middle East conflict.

For comments, email him at darren.dejesus@gmail.com.