The Middle East conflict is literally siphoning off global energy security, particularly in petroleum and lately liquefied natural gas (LNG), for which several local corporations had invested heavily to import for use as fuel in power generation.

Qatar’s energy minister said the attacks on his country’s LNG installations will slash its export capacity by 17 percent, resulting in an estimated $20 billion loss in annual revenue.

Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, in a statement, said Qatar is considering declaring a force majeure for up to five years on some long-term LNG contracts.

“The damage sustained by the LNG facilities will take between three and five years to repair. The impact is on China, South Korea, Italy and Belgium,” the minister said.

Force majeure is the legal term for events beyond one’s control that may lead to missing export targets.

Iran’s attacks on QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan LNG hub — the world’s largest — have sent natural gas prices soaring.

Memories of the painful price hikes following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are still fresh in the minds of many Europeans, but specialists believe the impact would be less this time.

A prolonged force majeure event by QatarEnergy under its LNG contracts would have significant, but primarily indirect, effects on the local energy sector.

While not a major long-term contract buyer like South Korea, China or Italy, the Philippines will be affected by sharp price spikes and supply tightness.

Local energy producers imported about 1.58-million tons of LNG in 2025, with plans to grow it sharply, projected to increase by 508 percent by 2029.

The main domestic gas terminals are First Gen’s Batangas FSRU and AG&P’s PHLNG, which exclusively supply San Miguel’s Ilijan plant.

First Gen received its first direct Qatari LNG cargo in 2025, but most of its purchases are on a spot or short-term basis. Sources also include the US and Australia.

Energy Secretary Sharon Garin recently announced plans to boost coal-fired output, suspend some market rules and possibly regulate electricity prices as early as this week to shield consumers from high prices.

Coal is cheaper and more readily available in the short term, but this increases emissions and delays the transition to gas.

Terminals are not yet short of cargoes, as March deliveries are largely intact, but competition for spot LNG is intensifying. Smaller Asian buyers, such as in the Philippines, are already pausing additional purchases until prices ease, Bloomberg reported.

DAILY TRIBUNE reached out to Meralco, which said the implications of the Qatar announcement are under review.

Danger level reached

Dutch multinational bank ING’s head of commodity strategy, Warren Patterson, said Iran’s retaliatory attacks on its neighbors are more of a concern for the gas market.

“Damage to the LNG facilities means the troubles for global gas markets aren’t just about when flows through the Strait of Hormuz will resume, but how long repair work at the sites might take,” Patterson said.

Even if the LNG facilities remain largely untouched, the market will have to price in a higher risk premium, given the growing threat to the region’s energy infrastructure.

As for Iran’s energy assets, the South Pars gas field was also hit. It accounts for around 70 percent of total Iranian natural gas output.

It’s unclear how significant the damage is, but clearly risks abound for Iranian natural gas exports to Turkey, Iraq and Armenia.