Fresh survey data show Vice President Sara Duterte firmly in control of the Visayas and Mindanao heading into the 2028 presidential race, consolidating a regional base that could prove decisive against any candidate backed by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

According to Pulse Asia research director Ana Tabunda, the numbers indicate that any candidate backed by Marcos would face a steep climb in the Visayas and Mindanao, where support for Duterte runs deep.

“When it comes to Visayas-Mindanao, the effect of the endorsement of President Marcos will be nil,” Tabunda said, underscoring the limits of presidential influence in regions with strong political loyalties.

Survey results reinforce this regional advantage. Duterte posted a 55-percent approval rating and a 54-percent trust rating — figures that significantly eclipsed those of Marcos.

Her dominance is especially pronounced in Mindanao, long considered a political stronghold of the Duterte family.

“Yes, it does, especially for Sara Duterte,” said Tabunda when asked if the data reflected entrenched bailiwicks. “The loyalty to Duterte doesn’t change.”

Even political controversies, including impeachment proceedings, appear to have had little impact on her support base. “It didn’t change,” Tabunda said, pointing to the resilience of Duterte’s backing in the south.

Divided political map

The findings highlight a familiar yet widening geographic divide in Philippine politics.

While Marcos continues to draw most of his support from Luzon, Duterte commands significant influence across the Visayas and Mindanao, regions that together hold a decisive share of the national vote.

For the administration, this presents a strategic challenge. “They can’t just rely on Balance Luzon,” said Tabunda, stressing that winning the presidency would require a coalition that cuts across all major island groups.

She added that any viable contender in 2028 would need to break into Duterte’s southern base.

“In the case of the presidency in 2028, it’s going to be hard to find someone who can draw support away from Sara in Mindanao,” Tabunda said.

The situation is further complicated by the perceived rift between Marcos and Duterte, which could limit the President’s ability to improve his ratings in Mindanao.

However, Tabunda said the administration may still have an opening in the Visayas if it strengthens its presence through visible, on-the-ground governance.

Early positioning

Duterte’s early declaration of her intent to run for president in 2028 — an unusual move in Philippine politics — has so far had no adverse effect on her standing in the surveys.

“I cannot recall anyone announcing his or her candidacy that far in advance as we now have with Sara Duterte,” Tabunda said. “I don’t think it has an effect in her case.”