Reality check
Filipinos might have felt the effects of this distant war less harshly if there were more foresight and if actions were swift.
Text size
Filipinos might have felt the effects of this distant war less harshly if there were more foresight and if actions were swift.
Trump’s oil gamble
Strip away the diplomatic language and the explosions and the Middle East conflict begins to look less like a regional feud and more like a fight over who will control the world’s oil.
The second administration of Donald Trump appears determined to turn oil into America’s most powerful geopolitical weapon.
Washington’s doctrine of “energy dominance” is blunt: pump more oil, drill more fields, and flood global markets with American supply. The policy leans on deregulation, expanded drilling leases, and fast-tracked energy infrastructure. The objective is not simply lower gasoline prices at home — it is influence.
Control the supply, shape prices, and suddenly the world’s fuel market begins to revolve around Washington.
On the DAILY TRIBUNE program Straight Talk, International Studies Professor at De La Salle University, Renato de Castro, warned that the Iran-Israel confrontation should not be mistaken for a simple regional clash.
For decades, he noted, the United States has tried to prevent any single power from dominating key regions — whether China in Asia, Russia in Europe, or Iran in the Middle East.
Every crisis in the Gulf reminds markets of one thing: oil is still the world’s ultimate leverage.
And the biggest producer often holds the strongest hand.
— Jason Mago
America may lose the war
On 3 March, Professor Jiang Xueqin opened his lecture with the line: “Welcome back to the end of the world.”
Jiang is not just another YouTube commentator. In a 2024 lecture, he predicted two developments that materialized: the reelection of Donald Trump and a US war with Iran.
His latest prediction? America may lose the war.
The conflict began with the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day. His son quickly assumed leadership. For Iran’s Shia population, Jiang argues, the assassination risks turning the conflict into something far more dangerous — a jihad.
“This is not a geopolitical war,” Jiang said. “This is a jihad… they will fight to the death.”
Then comes the asymmetry.
Iran relies on cheap drones costing tens of thousands of dollars. The United States responds with missile systems costing millions. “You’re spending $2 million to $3 million for each $50,000 that the Iranians spend,” Jiang said. “That’s kind of silly.”
The Pentagon has reported that $11.3 billion was spent in just the first six days of fighting.
The real pressure point is the Strait of Hormuz.
Ships are under attack. Oil prices surged near $120 a barrel before settling around $92. World leaders released 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest coordinated release ever.
Even that barely calmed markets.
In the Philippines, the shock was immediate. Fuel prices soared. Government offices are shifting to a four-day workweek. Buses now turn off their engines while waiting for passengers.
This is an asymmetrical war. Sometimes wars are not lost on the battlefield. Sometimes they are lost in the pocket.
— Carl Magadia
MidEast war? So what!
It has been 13 days since the conflict in the Middle East involving the United States, Israel and Iran began — a confrontation that has spilled into neighboring Muslim nations and sent hundreds of OFWs back home.
Geographically, the Philippines is not toting weapons in this war. But the ricochets are being felt.
For days now, headlines have been dominated by fuel price hikes. This week alone, diesel, gasoline and kerosene prices spiked by around P10 per liter after Shia Muslim-dominated Iran blocked portions of the Strait of Hormuz.
Motorists rushed to gas stations to fill their tanks before Tuesday, the usual day price increases take effect. Others are leaving their cars at home and taking public transportation instead.
On Wednesday, the Department of Trade and Industry told consumers to brace for possible price increases of basic goods. While supplies remain stable, the conflict — whose end no one can predict — is already pushing up the cost of transporting goods.
Even before this, the Department of Energy warned that electricity rates could increase by as much as 16 percent next month if global fuel prices continue to rise.
A passenger boards a bus, paying a higher fare. The bus waits for more riders before leaving. Because of rising fuel costs, the driver switches off the engine while waiting. Inside, passengers sit and sweat in the heat.
Oil prices spike. Movement slows.
This should not be as painful if the government had already strengthened systems that should have been fixed long ago.
If…. If public transportation were efficient and reliable. If agricultural workers had easy access to fuel subsidies. If the government had moved early to suspend or reduce fuel taxes. If private companies were more flexible in implementing hybrid work setups or reducing office days.
Filipinos might have felt the effects of this distant war less harshly if there were more foresight and if actions were swift.
The reality is that we are in this war, too — with ordinary Filipinos on the losing side.
— Vivienne Angeles
