Reality check
Filipinos might have felt the effects of this distant war less harshly if there were more foresight and if actions were swift.
Trump’s oil gamble
Strip away the diplomatic language and the explosions and the Middle East conflict begins to look less like a regional feud and more like a fight over who will control the world’s oil.
The second administration of Donald Trump appears determined to turn oil into America’s most powerful geopolitical weapon.
Washington’s doctrine of “energy dominance” is blunt: pump more oil, drill more fields, and flood global markets with American supply. The policy leans on deregulation, expanded drilling leases, and fast-tracked energy infrastructure. The objective is not simply lower gasoline prices at home — it is influence.
Control the supply, shape prices, and suddenly the world’s fuel market begins to revolve around Washington.
On the DAILY TRIBUNE program Straight Talk, International Studies Professor at De La Salle University, Renato de Castro, warned that the Iran-Israel confrontation should not be mistaken for a simple regional clash.
For decades, he noted, the United States has tried to prevent any single power from dominating key regions — whether China in Asia, Russia in Europe, or Iran in the Middle East.
Every crisis in the Gulf reminds markets of one thing: oil is still the world’s ultimate leverage.
And the biggest producer often holds the strongest hand.
— Jason Mago
America may lose the war
On 3 March, Professor Jiang Xueqin opened his lecture with the line: “Welcome back to the end of the world.”
Jiang is not just another YouTube commentator. In a 2024 lecture, he predicted two developments that materialized: the reelection of Donald Trump and a US war with Iran.
His latest prediction? America may lose the war.
The conflict began with the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day. His son quickly assumed leadership. For Iran’s Shia population, Jiang argues, the assassination risks turning the conflict into something far more dangerous — a jihad.
“This is not a geopolitical war,” Jiang said. “This is a jihad… they will fight to the death.”
Then comes the asymmetry.
Iran relies on cheap drones costing tens of thousands of dollars. The United States responds with missile systems costing millions. “You’re spending $2 million to $3 million for each $50,000 that the Iranians spend,” Jiang said. “That’s kind of silly.”
The Pentagon has reported that $11.3 billion was spent in just the first six days of fighting.
The real pressure point is the Strait of Hormuz.
Ships are under attack. Oil prices surged near $120 a barrel before settling around $92. World leaders released 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest coordinated release ever.
Even that barely calmed markets.
In the Philippines, the shock was immediate. Fuel prices soared. Government offices are shifting to a four-day workweek. Buses now turn off their engines while waiting for passengers.
This is an asymmetrical war. Sometimes wars are not lost on the battlefield. Sometimes they are lost in the pocket.
— Carl Magadia