Former Chief Presidential Legal Counsel Salvador Panelo expects the House of Representatives to approve the transmission of the impeachment case against Vice President Sara Duterte, but he warned that the real test will come in the Senate, where securing enough votes for conviction could prove difficult.

Panelo said the impeachment case will almost certainly be elevated to the Senate following the House Committee on Justice’s overwhelming vote to declare the two complaints against Duterte “sufficient in substance.”

“Wala namang duda na maiiakyat, sigurado iyan. Saka mata-transmit sa Senado yan, walang kaduda-duda. Moro moro lang lahat iyan. Pagdating sa Senado, problema nila. Mahihirapan sila sa 16 [votes] (There’s no doubt it will be elevated; it will definitely be transmitted to the Senate, no question about it. It’s all just show in the House. The problem will be in the Senate. They’ll struggle to get 16 votes),” Panelo said in a television interview.

He stressed that while the House may act decisively, the challenge of securing the required 16 Senate votes for conviction is significant.

Panelo also expressed curiosity about how many House members will vote to transmit the articles of impeachment, predicting that the number may be lower than the 215 lawmakers who signed the complaints in 2025.

He noted that some legislators may consider the political implications ahead of the 2028 presidential election.

“Yung iba diyan, two years and two months pa, pwede pang mag-sipsip muna tayo sa administrasyon (Some of them, there are still two years and two months to go, so we could still cozy up to the administration),” he said.

Panelo lambasted Cagayan de Oro Rep. Rufus Rodriguez for voting to declare the complaints sufficient despite contesting some of the grounds cited.

Rodriguez had questioned whether Duterte could be impeached for actions taken as Education Secretary, arguing that a cabinet secretary is not an impeachable official.

“Ano nangyari doon, akala ko ba contrary, bakit bumoto?… Hindi consistent. Kala ko kampi ka, yun pala boboto ka din (What happened there, I thought you were against it, why did you vote?… Not consistent. I thought you were on the side of Duterte, but it turns out you voted as well),” Panelo said.

Meanwhile, Quezon City Rep. Jesus Suntay was the only lawmaker to vote against finding the impeachment complaints sufficient in substance.

Panelo concluded that while the House may transmit the case to the Senate, victory there is far from guaranteed, setting up a politically charged showdown in the upper chamber.