This could stop us cold: Middle East analysts, discussing the current global tension in the Middle East, said America has abandoned them and focused its defense systems on protecting Israel, leaving the Gulf states that host its military bases at the mercy of Iranian missiles and drones.

As Filipinos reading that, how can you not feel your stomach drop?

Here we are, proudly expanding our EDCA sites with the Americans. Nine locations now — from Cagayan to Palawan — where US forces can rotate through, build facilities, and preposition equipment. The government keeps reassuring us: these are Philippine bases, not American ones. Just for training and disaster response, they say.

When push comes to shove, what happens to us? Because look at what just went down in the Gulf, and many swear they’re seeing our future.

The Gulf states did everything Washington asked. Hosted American troops. Bought American weapons. Integrated their defense with the US military. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE — model allies. Then Iran started launching barrages, and the US pulled its defensive interceptors and prioritized Israel. They were left to fend for themselves with Patriot missile stocks reportedly running dangerously low.

Iran has thousands of missiles. The US and its allies are burning through interceptors faster than Lockheed Martin can make them. One military expert put it bluntly — Gulf states would feel the “pain of interceptor shortage” within days, not weeks.

Are we supposed to believe this won’t happen to us?

The Trump administration’s National Security Strategy basically admits America is tired of being the world’s policeman. They’re open to accepting that bigger nations — that means China — have their own “spheres of influence.” The era of US security guarantees in Southeast Asia might end sooner than we think.

Spain refused to let US planes use its Rota and Morón air bases for US strikes on Iran. Trump threatened to end all trade. And Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez recently went on national TV to deliver a 10-minute response the world wasn’t expecting.

He drew a direct parallel to the Iraq war 23 years ago — how another US administration convinced allies to invade over weapons that never existed. He called it a failure that brought terrorism, migration crises, and rising energy costs across Europe. Trump called Spain a “terrible partner.” Sánchez responded with three words: “No to war.”

That’s what sovereignty looks like.

So, what happens when the US pivots to Asia — again — and decides it needs to use those EDCA sites for “defensive” operations against Chinese targets? What happens when China, which is only 200 kilometers from our northern border, decides those bases are legitimate military targets?

We may become the next Gulf states. Our farmers in Isabela, our fishermen in Palawan, our businesses near those bases — they become collateral damage in a war that isn’t ours.

Meanwhile, a handful of legislators are sounding the alarm here, saying we need to review EDCA because US bases in the Middle East keep getting hit, and our fellow Filipinos near these sites could pay the price. Another solon puts it even more starkly: we’re a developing country, and we can’t afford to be dragged into these conflicts.

The Philippine government says there’s “no credible direct threat” and urges us not to be swayed by fear-based narratives. I’m sure the Saudis thought the same thing. Right up until they were watching Iranian drones on their radar with few interceptors left to fire.

Even if war never comes, what does it say about our sovereignty when we’re betting our security on an ally that just proved it will abandon its vassals the moment someone else needs protection?

EDCA sites don’t really make us safer. It makes us a target. And when the missiles start flying, do we expect Uncle Sam to stick around? Maybe he’ll be busy protecting someone else.

Spain had the backbone to say no. The question is: do we?