The implications of the ongoing invasion of Iran by the United States on the peso–dollar exchange rate and the Philippine economy as a whole remain a “wait-and-see” situation, according to RCBC Chief Economist Michael Ricafort.

In an interview with DAILY TRIBUNE, Ricafort said the effects of the ongoing conflict are “still wait-and-see for the markets upon resumption of trading on Monday, 2 March, especially if there would be volatility in global oil/energy prices and potential disruption of global oil/energy supply chains,” noting that demand for the greenback may rise amid bargain-hunting and hedging.

“We’ll see by tomorrow when the markets reopen, but there could be some bargain-hunting to hedge requirements as a matter of prudence, until the dust settles,” Ricafort added.

During the January Venezuelan invasion by the US, the peso weakened slightly against the U.S. dollar once markets reopened. Before the event, the peso had been trading just under the P59 level. However, in the first trading sessions after the news, it slipped to around P59.13–P59.21 per dollar, moving closer to its recent lows.

This depreciation reflected not a collapse but rather a modest reaction driven mainly by investors shifting toward the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainty following the strike—something Ricafort said could happen again following the US strikes on Iran, which reportedly resulted in the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

“There could be some shift to safe havens until the dust settles, as a matter of prudence to hedge various risk exposures to be on the safe side,” he said.

Meanwhile, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains a major risk for global oil prices, as it is a key shipping route connecting the oil-producing countries of the Middle East to the rest of the world.

Approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil passed through the strait daily in 2024, equivalent to nearly 20 percent of global oil consumption, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

As an oil-importing nation, the peso–dollar exchange rate is fairly sensitive to oil price changes, with higher oil prices typically weakening the peso. Ricafort noted that before markets closed last Friday, global crude oil prices were already “near seven-month highs.”

Following the US invasion of Venezuela, analysts initially expected crude prices to briefly rise toward around $65 per barrel due to geopolitical risks, with some projections suggesting a spike toward $70–$80 if supply were disrupted. However, Venezuelan oil facilities were largely undamaged and production continued. Some benchmarks later drifted slightly lower as traders concluded the supply shock would be limited.

Oil prices were already set to tee mixed movements this week, with the Department of Energy reporting on 20 February that gasoline may rollback by P0.45 per liter, while diesel and kerosene may increase by P0.05 and P0.10 per liter, respectively.

Meanwhile, Ricafort added that remittances from overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) in the Middle East may also be affected by the unrest.

“Disruptions in travel, OFW deployment, and jobs could reduce business, employment, and other economic activities in some Middle Eastern countries. As a matter of prudence and safety, this could reduce OFW employment and remittances,” he said.

Personal remittances—which include both cash transfers and compensation of overseas Filipinos—rose to $3.89 billion in December 2025, bringing the full-year total to a record $39.62 billion, up 3.3 percent from $38.34 billion in 2024.

The Department of Migrant Workers has issued several advisories to OFWs working in the Middle East, while several flights from Manila to the region have also been canceled in the wake of the unrest.