From the extended regime of Ferdinand Marcos Sr. to Marcos Jr., political analyst and DAILY TRIBUNE columnist, lawyer Edward Chico has grown accustomed to sudden shifts in the Philippine political landscape and Filipino patronage politics.

With the public’s attention now focused on the Duterte family, cast as both protagonists in the political scene and apparent victims of the Marcos-Duterte feud, Chico’s Straight Talk episode on Wednesday outlined a realistic view of the near future amid this dramatic chapter.

Over the past week, headlines have been filled with news about the International Criminal Court (ICC) confirmation hearing of former President Rodrigo Duterte.

For many, it represented a long-awaited chance for justice, as families of bereaved victims were seen closely monitoring the live broadcast. For DDS, or so-called “Duterte Diehard Supporters,” their “fingers are crossed,” according to Chico, in hopes of a favorable outcome.

Rather than weighing which sentiment prevails, Chico pointed to historical precedents in ICC cases, noting a grim but realistic possibility: “Duterte might die before this is done with.”

Odds favor trial

He explained that while the ICC pre-trial chamber may decide whether the trial proceeds, is dismissed, or requires amendments and additional evidence, history is largely against the accused. In most cases, ICC proceedings advance to trial.

If that happens, Chico warned, “It’s going to be bloody,” citing a minimum process of eight to 10 years even for relatively uncomplicated cases. Only once, he noted, did a case conclude in just two years, and that was because the accused admitted guilt.

“In Duterte’s case, there are 47 pieces of evidence, if I’m not mistaken,” Chico said, emphasizing that the battle would likely be prolonged and that the former president may not live to see a favorable resolution.

Chico also cited the difficulty of securing witnesses, forcing the court to rely heavily on circumstantial evidence. “Just think about it — how would you quantify civil society’s claim of 30,000 cases when only 6,000 are documented?” he said.

Beyond legal history, Chico highlighted structural challenges within the ICC itself. With limited funding from the United Nations and only a few sitting judges, scheduling becomes critical, especially with pending cases involving Israel, Hamas and Russia.

The process, he added, poses a severe mental and financial burden for the Dutertes. Legal fees alone could reach around P150 million per month for preferred counsel.

“Huge, because it’s a different level. It’s not like me, you just give me vegetables and eggs, and it’s okay,” Chico quipped.

Despite the massive spending on private counsel, Chico believes the former president and his children have already accepted that there is no likelihood of the family patriarch being brought back home.

Sara’s political dominance

Chico further projected that the fall of the former first family could pave the way for another Duterte to rise to power, fueled by public sympathy, just as Benigno “PNoy” Aquino III won the presidency after the death of Cory Aquino.

“If he dies prior to 2028, it’s going to be game over,” he said, noting that Sara Duterte has already declared her candidacy for an executive position.

He added that even adverse outcomes might not derail the family’s political fortunes. “I think even if you impeach Sara, or if she’s convicted and perpetually disqualified,” he said, the Duterte name would still hold electoral power.

According to Chico, this projection is rooted in studies of Filipino political culture, which he described as highly reactive and emotionally driven.