Marcos Jr.'s grip on power has weakened

Based on reports from early this year, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s grip on power has significantly weakened following a series of political scandals, a major flood control corruption controversy, and an economic slowdown.

While he previously had the upper hand through the “UniTeam” alliance and control of the budget, his popularity had plummeted to 21 percent by December 2025—and he is facing a “slow and grinding” crisis that has allowed Vice President Sara Duterte to regain momentum.

Here is an analysis of the situation as of February 2026:

1. The Shifting Power Balance (Marcos vs Duterte)


a) Fractional Alliance: The UniTeam alliance between the Marcos and Duterte families has collapsed, wrestling for a direct political fight in 2028.

b) Falling Approval Ratings: As of December 2025, only 21 percent of Filipinos approved of Marcos Jr., down from 35 percent in August 2025. Conversely, Vice President Sara Duterte has maintained higher trust and approval ratings.

c) Impeachment Strategy: The House of Representatives, largely allied with Marcos, initiated impeachment moves against Sara Duterte, but this has not prevented her from appearing as a stronger contender for 2028.

2. Impact of Corruption and Economic Slowdown

a) “King of Pork” Scandal: A massive corruption scandal involving roughly P79 billion in ghost and incomplete flood control projects has severely damaged the administration’s reputation.

b) Economic Slowdown: The Philippine economy slowed down in the third quarter of 2025, with growth targets for 2026-2028 being revised downward. The administration is facing a “slow, grinding” crisis characterized by elevated prices and stagnant wages.

c) Response: The administration is attempting to fight back with anti-graft initiatives, including strengthening the 2026 national budget and firing suspected officials, but these actions have not yet translated into increased public confidence.

3. Factors Supporting Continued Power

a) Institutional Control: Despite his lower popularity, Marcos Jr. retains control of the national budget, allowing him to distribute funds to political allies to maintain support.

b) Use of State Machinery: Reports indicate the use of “Oplan Horus” and “Oplan Tugis” to target the Duterte camp, suggesting an attempt to use state resources to maintain the upper hand.

“Oplan Horus” is a fraudulent or false document circulated in the Philippines to falsely implicate House Majority Leader Manuel Dalipe in a political plot. The Lakas-CMD party reported it as a hoax containing forged signatures, designed to damage reputations and undermine the Duterte family.

The National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) is investigating the oplan as a cybercrime. “Oplan Tugis” is a revelation that Philippine authorities had been preparing for the arrest of former President Duterte since January 2025.

c) 2025 Midterm Fallout: While the 2025 elections showed a standoff between pro-Marcos and Duterte-backed candidates, the administration retains a firm hold on the House of Representatives.

Conclusion

As of early 2026, President Marcos Jr. is no longer in a dominant position and is struggling to maintain his authority against a resurgence of the Duterte family and high public dissatisfaction.

While he still holds the machinery of government, his ability to steer the country, both politically and economically, is severely compromised.