Fare hike looms despite rollbacks

The cost of gasoline may ease next week following several consecutive increases. At the same time, diesel and kerosene are projected to continue rising, offering only limited relief from the broader price squeeze that has prompted transport groups to push for a fare hike.

In a text message on Friday, Rodela Romero, director of the Department of Energy’s Oil and Industry Management Bureau, said gasoline prices could be rolled back by around 45 centavos per liter, offering slight relief after consecutive weeks of hikes.

Diesel and kerosene, however, are expected to edge higher, with modest increases of roughly five and 10 centavos per liter, respectively.

“A combination of geopolitical tensions, supply expectations, inventory movements and market sentiment shape global oil prices. But the expected adjustments for next week were heavily influenced by heightened geopolitical risks between the United States and Iran, and Russia and Ukraine,” Romero said.

Unending excuses

Romero noted that the US-Iran nuclear negotiations and rising tensions in Eastern Europe, including a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian Black Sea port, have added concerns over potential supply disruptions.

Meanwhile, Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas said weekly pump price indications and foreign exchange averages also point to a mixed outlook.

Gasoline is projected to remain relatively flat, with only minimal movement of up to ten centavos per liter. At the same time, diesel is likely to rise more noticeably, in the range of 40 to 60 centavos per liter.

“While this week’s gasoline MOPS prices have actually softened due to healthy regional inventories and supply, rising freight and premiums due to geopolitical risks have offset the prospect of a potential price rollback,” Bellas said.

“Helping temper the potential increase in domestic prices this week is the stronger peso against the US dollar,” he added.

This week, gasoline prices rose by P1.20 per liter, while diesel and kerosene both rose by 60 centavos per liter. Fuel retailers will announce final adjustments on Monday, with the changes taking effect on Tuesday morning.

Premature move

Malacañang said the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board (LTFRB) will prioritize buses as discussions continue over a possible fare hike.

Palace Press Officer and Presidential Communications Office Undersecretary Claire Castro explained that the proposed fare hikes for jeepneys are “premature” based on reports from the LTFRB.

Castro noted that the previous increase in P1 granted to jeepney drivers in October 2023 still covered the cost of fuel despite the nearly eight-week period during which fuel prices had consistently risen.

“Based on the LTFRB, the proposed fare hike by jeepney operators and drivers seems untimely; it’s premature since there has already been a provisional fare increase amounting to one peso,” the undersecretary said.

Castro indicated the agency will prioritize increasing bus fares, as there has been no fare update since 2022.

“The priority of the LTFRB is to have a fare hike for buses since they have yet to receive a temporary fare hike,” she said.