Stocks slide as rate cut looms, peso strengthens

The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) opened the trading week lower at 6,368.55, slipping 0.25 percent on Monday, 16 February.

Investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of this Thursday’s policy decision from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), with multiple analysts expecting the Monetary Board to greenlight another 25-basis-point reduction in the BSP’s key policy rate amid disappointing economic growth in 2025.

The central bank, which reduced its target reverse repurchase rate in December, had previously signaled that its monetary easing cycle was nearing its end.

However, BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. said that central bank data — including headline inflation, which remains relatively low — would determine whether the BSP proceeds with another cut, a move many investors anticipate as a positive signal for future economic growth.

Subdued trading

Trading activity was subdued with net value turnover at P4.22 billion, significantly below the year-to-date average of P6.35 billion, reflecting a wait-and-see approach among investors. Foreign investors were net sellers, registering P90.80 million in net outflows.

Sector performance was broadly negative, with only banks managing a modest 0.13 percent gain. Industrials led the decline, falling 0.89 percent, while decliners outpaced advancers, 140 to 79.

Peso strengthened

On the foreign exchange front, the peso strengthened to P57.98 per dollar, supported primarily by broad US dollar softness in global markets. The dollar’s pullback followed weaker US retail sales data, which dampened expectations of sustained US economic momentum and reduced the likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve tightening. As US Treasury yields eased, the dollar lost support, benefiting emerging-market currencies, including the peso.

Steady demand for Philippine financial assets and improving regional risk sentiment also helped underpin the currency’s appreciation, with the move appearing largely externally driven rather than the result of sudden domestic developments.