Plots to unseat Senate President Tito Sotto III are likely to persist. They could weaken his hold on power through 2028, given his fragile majority in a chamber where loyalties often follow dynastic lines.

This was raised on Friday by former Senator Franklin Drilon, who also served as Senate president and was ousted in a 2000 coup.

“All roads lead to the 2028 polls,” Drilon stated.

Drilon, also once a justice secretary, pointed out that Sotto’s hold on power is heavily dependent on the backing of the majority of 15.

Of the total, four are siblings from two different families: Senators Raffy and Erwin Tulfo, and Mark and Camille Villar.

Senators Pia Cayetano and JV Ejercito also have their siblings in the Senate, Senators Alan Cayetano and Jinggoy Estrada, though they belong to the minority.

This composition, according to Drilon, poses a threat to Sotto, as support shifts may happen at any time.

“Whatever the (14 members of the majority) decided is what will be followed…My friend Senate President Sotto is in a difficult position because his majority is very slim,” Drilon said in a radio interview.

“So, assuming that Alan (Peter Cayetano) is interested in becoming Senate president, Pia will shift to the minority so that she can vote for her brother,” he added.

Drilon posited Sotto’s struggle to keep his seat is expected to intensify as the “2028 election gets nearer.”

The majority bloc plans to install Senator Loren Legarda in Sotto’s place, but not until 2028, as this is the condition set by the Senate leader. Legarda, on the other hand, has been reluctant to entertain a supposed arrangement for the chamber’s leadership, saying she has “no idea” about it.

Migz owns up

Majority Leader Migz Zubiri admitted to floating the idea of making Legarda “the first woman Senate president.”

Though it was merely in jest, Zubiri said Sotto consented to it and agreed to relinquish the post until the Senate transferred to its new building in Taguig, likely in the latter part of 2027.

This is primarily because Sotto wanted the new Senate building as part of his legacy, according to Zubiri.

Last September, both Legarda and Zubiri voted for Sotto in ousting then-Senate president Escudero, who faces allegations of involvement in flood-control kickbacks.

Talks of ousting Sotto have persisted since last week, coming on the heels of reports of the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee’s impending approval of its report, which recommended filing corruption charges against minority Senators Chiz Escudero, Jinggoy Estrada, and Joel Villanueva over the flood control scandal.

Speculations have suggested that the minority is courting Legarda to snatch the presidency from Sotto to avert the committee report from reaching the plenary for official consideration.

Sotto later confirmed that members of the minority were behind persistent efforts to remove him in place of Legarda.

The Senate, however, expressed confidence that he retains the support of the 14 majority senators and that the minority’s alleged coup plot will not succeed because they don’t have the numbers in paper.

Magic number is 13

“To unseat the leader, you must have 13 votes. The 13 votes, you must have it in writing,” Sotto told reporters in a virtual briefing on Friday. “It can’t be just a commitment or a word. That’s a perilous move. You could end up embarrassing yourself.”

Wednesday’s Senate session was filled with immense tension after it was suspended for over an hour and a half, and resumed with Legarda taking the rostrum in place of Sotto before she declared the session was adjourned.

Zubiri was also repeatedly addressed as “Madame President” towards the end of the session, though the same ended with Sotto still being the Senate president.

Shortly after the adjournment, Sotto confirmed that there was indeed a coup attempt, but it failed when the majority blocked it.

Earlier that day, minority senators Estrada and Imee Marcos were seen departing Legarda’s office after a supposed meeting, further fueling speculation that Legarda was being groomed to replace Sotto.

But Legarda dismissed it, asserting that “People come in and out of session.”

According to Sotto, the minority was offended by the leadership’s decision to remove Marcos as chairperson of the Foreign Relations Committee and seat Senator Erwin Tulfo in her place.

This, on top of the BRC report, has triggered the ouster plot against him.

Marcos, in response, countered that her removal “had nothing to do with whatever it is that he thinks is going on in the Senate.”

This is because the Senate resolution lambasting China in defense of senators and other officials, like Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson Jay Tarriela, “was not even referred to the Foreign Relations Committee.”

The resolution in question, which condemns the Chinese embassy’s alleged indecent remarks against legislators and Tarriela, who are criticizing Beijing’s continued assertion of jurisdiction over the entire South China Sea, has sparked intense debate between the opposing blocs in the Senate.