Moody’s Analytics projects that the Philippine economy will miss its 2025 full-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth target, ahead of the official release of GDP figures by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) on Thursday.

In a report released Monday, the firm said it expects 2025 GDP growth to settle at 5.1 percent, below the 5.5 to 6.5 percent target range set by the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) in June last year, which had already been revised downward.

Moody’s forecast represents a 0.8-percentage-point downgrade from its March 2025 projection. The revision places the firm alongside other international institutions — including the International Monetary Fund, Standard & Poor’s, and the World Bank — which have also trimmed their growth forecasts for 2025 amid the fallout from the flood control scandal.

Key factor

The controversy has been widely cited as a key factor behind the third-quarter GDP slowdown to 4.0 percent and the deterioration in investor sentiment.

Despite the weak third-quarter performance, Moody’s expects a partial rebound in the final quarter of the year.

The firm projected fourth-quarter GDP growth at around 5.3 percent, driven largely by strong demand for electronic exports. However, it cautioned that weather-related disruptions likely “weighed on economic activity by disrupting agriculture, infrastructure and household consumption.”

2025 GDP growth to average 4.6 percent

Earlier this month, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. said full-year GDP growth for 2025 would likely average around 4.6 percent. In December, Remolona also said fourth-quarter growth was tracking at about 3.8 percent, based on central bank data available at the time.

The PSA is scheduled to release the official full-year and fourth-quarter 2025 GDP results on Thursday, 29 January.